These two teams have been on different trajectories for quite some time. After losing two of the first three games, Denver has rattled off eight straight. Washington won two of the first three games but are currently riding a six-game losing streak. Denver has mostly done it with a stifling defense while the injury to Jayden Daniels has essentially tanked the season for Washington.
Daniels has been ruled out, so Marcus Mariota will make his third straight start and sixth on the season. In the prior five starts, Mariota went 88-of-130 for 1,002, seven touchdowns and four interceptions. The average yards per attempts was 7.71. He rushed 25 times for 159 yards and a touchdown and took eight sacks.
He will have his hands full in this one, as Denver has neutered most passing attacks this season. The Broncos are posting the third-lowest EPA per dropback and have allowed only nine passing touchdowns, the only team in single digits. The 58.0 completion percentage is the lowest in the league as well. Denver is fourth in pressure rate and the 49 sacks lead the league by a wide margin.
The rush defense is equally good, posting the third-lowest EPA per carry. Only eight rushing touchdowns have been scored while the yards per attempts is a paltry 3.6, the lowest in the league as well.
The Broncos rush offense is 13th in EPA per carry, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and has scored 11 touchdowns. The pass offense is 16th in EPA per dropback. Bo Nix is completing only 61.2% of his passes with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He has taken only 13 sacks, though, the second-lowest in the league.
On defense, Washington is posting the eighth-highest EPA per carry with 10 touchdowns and 4.7 yards per carry allowed. The pass defense has been the worst in the league with the highest EPA per dropback, and 22 passing touchdowns have been allowed.
Below are the values that could hopefully help take you to the promised land.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (DEN @ WAS)
WR Pat Bryant – Denver Broncos ($3,200)
Bryant was selected in the third round of the 2025 draft. He impressed over the summer and even drew Michael Thomas comparisons from Sean Payton. The playing time and production were sparse for must of the season, but in Week 5, Bryant started receiving 50% of the snaps, and it’s been consistently in that range since. He scored a touchdown in Week 8, posting his first double-digit FPTS game, and in Week 11, Bryant hauled in a career-high five of six targets for 82 yards. That could be an outlier or it could be the start of something. We shall see how it plays out, but the signs seem to indicate more of the latter.
TE Evan Engram, Denver Broncos ($4,600)
Engram is only playing around 40 to 50% of the snaps, but he is the pass-catching option at tight end for Denver. He leads the group by a significant margin with 50 targets on the season. Washington has allowed the third-most touchdowns to the position.
RB Jeremy McNichols, Washington Commanders ($4,000)
It’s a three-headed backfield in Washington, consisting of McNichols, Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jacory Croskey-Merritt. McNichols received 25% of the snaps last week and has been in the 25 to 30% range for much of the season. He leads the group with 20 targets. McNichols is $2,000 cheaper than the other two backs and he’s going to see action. There’s an upside scenario if the Commanders fall behind and McNichols is out there in most of the passing scenarios.
