Week 14 of college football action is here with a cross-state ACC rivalry matchup between the University of North Carolina Tar Heels and North Carolina State Wolfpack taking place. It has not been the desired start for Bill Belichick in college football, with UNC slipping to 4-7 and out of bowl game contention, but it will look to end on a high note.
Looking at the odds for this matchup, NC State enters as a seven-point favorite and holds -278 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. North Carolina holds +225 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 49.5 points.
This article provides a preview of both teams and offers a pick for the Week 14 matchup.
North Carolina at North Carolina State prediction, preview
North Carolina Tar Heels
The Tar Heels have slipped to 4-7 on the season and dropped six of their last eight. Their victories have come against Richmond, Charlotte, Syracuse and Stanford. North Carolina had Duke on the ropes last week, holding a 25-24 lead in the fourth quarter, but it allowed the go-ahead touchdown with 2:18 remaining to suffer the loss. UNC is 5-5-1 against the spread, and the over/under is 3-7-1 on the year.
North Carolina is averaging just 19.7 points per game, which ranks 121st out of the 136 qualifying teams. It is generating 290.9 yards per game, with just 182.5 yards through the air. On the defensive side of the ball, opponents are scoring 22.9 points per game, which ranks 51st, while allowing 332.5 total yards of offense. The Tar Heels allowed 28+ points in back-to-back games entering this matchup, which snapped a streak of three consecutive games in which they held opponents to 17 points or fewer.
Quarterback Gio Lopez struggled to start the season, but he has shown some significant improvement as the year progressed. He has completed 64.9% of his pass attempts for 1,629 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions while adding 141 rushing yards and three scores on the ground. Demon June is the team’s leading rusher with 461 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Jordan Shipp headlines the wide receiver production with 52 receptions for 581 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
North Carolina State Wolfpack
North Carolina State enters with a 6-5 record on the season. It is coming off a victory over Florida State last week, but it has suffered losses against Miami, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech and Duke this year. The Wolfpack are 5-6 against the spread, while the over has cashed in six of their 11 games.
NC State is generating 29.1 average points per game, which ranks 57th in the country, and putting up 397.8 average yards of offense. Defensively, opponents are scoring 29.7 points per game and 435.2 total yards of offense. Both rank in the bottom third of college football programs. The Wolfpack have allowed 31+ points in six games this season.
CJ Bailey stands in at quarterback and has completed 69.6% of his pass attempts for 2,683 yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions while adding 150 rushing yards and five scores with his legs. Daylan Smothers leads the rushing attack with 907 yards and six scores, while Jayden Scott adds four touchdowns and 460 rushing yards of his own. Terrell Anderson has a team-high 596 receiving yards and five touchdowns, while TE Justin Joly is tied for an ACC-best six receiving scores along with 438 yards through the air.
North Carolina at North Carolina State pick, best bet
It was an ugly start to the year for North Carolina, but there has been some notable improvement as the season progressed. Offense has been its biggest problem, and NC State’s vulnerable defense will ease this approach. Gio Lopez averaged just 119.4 passing yards per game through the opening five weeks, but he has thrown for 200+ yards in each of his past five starts with six touchdowns and just two interceptions across this stretch. This includes having stiffer defenses than what NC State offers.
The Tar Heels’ defense has been respectable all year and limited a high-powered Duke offense to 352 total yards of offense last week, with some timely stops to keep them in the game. NC State has also already clinched their bowl eligibility and doesn’t have a ton to play for. However, the rivalry matchup always turns the intensity up a bit.
The underdog has covered in seven of the last nine games between North Carolina and North Carolina State, including winning outright in three of the past four. NC State has failed to win the first half in 12 of its past 16 games against conference opponents. Expect Gio Lopez to be able to capitalize enough on this vulnerable NC State defense to put North Carolina in a position for a positive result. The seven-point spread is too much for my liking given the rivalry stakes, so don’t be shocked if the Tar Heels produce the outright upset to end the season on a positive note.
