ACC supremacy hangs in the balance this afternoon. For #12 Miami, a trip to the College Football Playoff remains in sight. However, with two losses, the Hurricanes can’t afford another slip-up. That means finishing off the resurgent Panthers, who have won six of their previous seven games. With a victory on Saturday, Pitt will secure its spot for next week’s conference championship game.
Which side will come out on top in this do-or-die matchup? Miami enters this contest as seven-point favorites (-110) over Pittsburgh, with the over/under set at 49.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami vs. Pittsburgh prediction, preview
It’s been an up-and-down campaign for the Canes thus far. A season-opening win over #9 Notre Dame has aged well. However, losses to Louisville and SMU have been a blemish. In addition, early victories over Florida and Florida State haven’t aged well. Part of Miami’s volatility is due to its quarterback. Carson Beck is undeniably talented, throwing for 2,805 yards, 22 touchdowns and an ACC-leading 74% completion percentage. However, the senior has also thrown nine interceptions. That includes Week 7’s four-pick performance against the Cardinals.
Still, for all their ups and downs, The U remains lethal on offense. The school ranks fifth in the ACC in passing yards (275.8) and seventh in rushing yards (150.9) per game. Such a well-balanced attack can make it difficult for opposing defenses to know what’s coming next. Through nine games, running back Mark Fletcher Jr. has churned out 655 yards and nine touchdowns. However, backfield mate Girard Pringle Jr. has carved out a larger role in recent weeks. Together, the pair will face a stiff test on Saturday. Pitt has held opponents to a conference-leading 2.8 rushing yards per attempt.
Trailing just behind the Panthers in that category is Miami, holding teams to just 2.9 yards per carry. There’s a good chance that trend continues this weekend with running back Desmond Reid is questionable to play. The senior missed last week’s win over Georgia Tech. However, JaKyrian Turner didn’t need much help, gashing the Yellow Jackets for 201 yards and a touchdown. Another productive showing on the ground would give Pitt a major boost.
With respect to his teammates, Mason Heintschel has been the driving factor behind Pittsburgh’s midseason turnaround. In seven games as a starter, the freshman has thrown for 1,863 yards and 14 touchdowns. Other than a disastrous performance vs. Notre Dame, it’s been a terrific debut campaign for the 18-year-old. It helps that the Panthers roster two terrific wide receivers in Kenny Johnson and Raphael Williams. Together, the duo have combined for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns. However, big plays will be hard to come by against the Hurricanes. Miami has held its opponents to an ACC-leading 282.2 yards of offense per game.
Miami vs. Pittsburgh pick, best bet
The Panthers have become one of the more difficult groups to bet on in college football. A dominant win over Georgia Tech and a blowout loss to Notre Dame over the past two weeks makes things even more confusing. Heintschel is the real deal, but this isn’t a group with many proven track records. In comparison, Miami has players experienced in big games, including Beck. Following last season’s crushing regular season finale vs. Syracuse, I’m expecting the Canes to come out hot. Don’t be shocked if the visitors rush out to a multiple score lead in the first half.
