11 games of NBA Action will be taking place across tonight’s Friday Night NBA Cup slate. Helping to kick things off, the Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks will be facing off for the second time this season. It would take a massive win from either side to earn an advancement in the NBA Cup, as the Miami Heat lead the East Group C with a 3-1 NBA Cup record and a +49 point differential. The Knicks and Bucks both enter with a 2-1 record with a point differential of +25 in NBA Cup action.
Looking at the odds, the Knicks enter as 8.5-point favorites and hold -340 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Bucks hold +270 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 232.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Friday night matchup.
Bucks at Knicks preview, prediction
The Milwaukee Bucks showed some promise at the start of the season, but have hit a clear road bump following the injury to Giannis Antetokounmpo. After getting off to an 8-5 start to the season in which they found an identity of surrounding their superstar with shooters, Milwaukee has lost six straight games entering this matchup. Antetokounmpo has been upgraded to questionable tonight with his adductor strain, but has not played since leaving the matchup on November 17th. Kevin Porter Jr. and Taurean Prince will remain out tonight.
Ryan Rollins has been a real bright spot this season, with and without Antetokounmpo on the floor. The Toledo product is averaging 18.6 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 4.2 assists while making a strong impact on the defensive end. Myles Turner has underwhelmed a bit relative to expectations, but adds 13.0 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. Kyle Kuzma, A.J. Green, Bobby Portis, and Gary Trent Jr. each also average in double figures.
Milwaukee is averaging 115.8 points per game, which ranks 18th in the NBA. They are posting the second-best three-point percentage at 40.8% collectively, the fourth-best field goal percentage, but rank 28th in rebounds per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 118.6 points per game against Milwaukee, which ranks 21st in opponents’ points per game. The Bucks are 8-11 against the spread so far this season, and the over has cashed in 10 of the 19 games.
Mike Brown has brought some change around this New York roster this season, but it has been a mixed bag of results in the early parts of the season. The Knicks are 11-6 on the year but are 9-3 in their last 12. They enter with an overall cleaner bill of health, although O.G. Anunoby and Landry Shamet remain sidelined for tonight’s matchup.
Jalen Brunson headlines the production for the Knicks, although they have leaned on his isolation style of play at a lesser rate this year. The two-time All-Star is averaging 28.6 points per game, 6.3 assists, and 3.3 rebounds this season. Karl-Anthony Towns adds 22.4 points and 12.3 rebounds, while Mikal Bridges has been further unlocked in this offensive system, with 16.4 points and 4.6 rebounds per contest. Jordan Clarkson, Miles McBride, and Josh Hart are also averaging in double figures, while Mitchell Robinson continues to make a major impact with his rebounding off the bench.
As a team, New York ranks sixth in the league in scoring at 120.8 points per game. They rank 15th in field goal percentage, 10th in three-point efficiency, and eighth in rebounds per contest. The Knicks have had more struggles defensively, allowing 114.3 points, ranking 15th in defensive rating, and 27th in opponents’ three-point percentage allowed. They have taken some positive strides in improving on this end of the floor of late. New York is 10-7 against the spread this season, and the over has cashed in 10 of their 17 games.
Bucks at Knicks prediction, best bet
The status of Giannis Antetokounmpo will be one to watch and play a major role in the outlook for this matchup. The growing expectation seems to be that he will play, and the Bucks’ style of play will return to its design with their superstar at the helm.
With or without Antetokounmpo, I am backing the over of 233.5 points in this matchup. Both these teams have surpassed the over at a high rate this year, with Milwaukee going 10-9 and New York 10-7 in this category. The game total finished at 232 in the first matchup between these two teams, with the Knicks performing well below their offensive expectations. They shot just 42% from the field and 32% on three-point attempts in this matchup, but still managed to scrape their way to 111 points in the loss.
Expect some more luck tonight as they are coming off a 129-point outing on Wednesday and have played at a high level of late. The Knicks are sixth in the league in scoring and third in offensive rating, averaging 120.8 points per contest. Milwaukee is not the caliber of defensive team that should be able to slow them down regularly, and the first matchup felt like a bit of a shooting outlier. The 111 points they scored against the Bucks was their fourth-lowest scoring output of the season.
On the other side of the matchup, the Bucks have made a clear focus to lean on their three-point shooting at a high rate. They keep multiple dangerous shooters on the floor at all times who are ready to let it fly. Milwaukee ranks 13th in three-point attempts per game, and is connecting at a 40.2% rate collectively in these opportunities. This will be especially problematic against a Knicks team that ranks 27th in three-point attempts allowed and 26th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
If both teams were to hit their scoring average, this game total would finish at 236.6. Expect New York to have success attacking some of the weaker Bucks’ defenders and for Milwaukee’s perimeter shooting to create issues on the other end. Lace up the track shoes and look for both these teams to push the pace, get out in transition, and run up the score. Count on the game total finishing above the 233.5 point total in this Eastern Conference battle.
