Week 13. It began with three games on Thanksgiving. Now that those are over and we’ve taken our naps and cleaned, it’s time to navigate the rest of the scene. But first, let me brew myself a hot cup of joe with plenty of caffeine. That’s always been a part of my morning routine. Ahhhh, that hit the dopamine. My mind only works with 100 octane gasoline. There is nothing evergreen about this intro. Never outdated like a month-old magazine. I slave away at the computer like someone in quarantine, tapping the keyboard like a tambourine. I do it all so that hopefully one lineup can bounce off a trampoline, to heights so high that when you return earth, a hero’s welcome awaits, like that for the men in blue that play in Chavez Ravine, topped off with a stretch limousine. If not, we must lick our wounds and bounce back like Marvel’s Wolverine.
No teams have a bye this week.
We’ve got 10 games on this main slate. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, two games have a spread of three points or less. There are two double-digit favorites: LAR -10 over CAR and SEA -11.5 over MIN. One game has a total of at least 45 points. The lowest total is SF/CLE at 35.5 points. There are five home dogs.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers ($7,000) – It has been quite the ride for Stafford this season. Due to back issues over the summer, there were questions whether he would even be playing for the Rams. Then he started the season fairly slowly, putting up fewer than 19 FPTS in each of the first three games. Since then, Stafford has been an MVP candidate, putting up at least 20 FPTS in all but two games with a high of 30.4 FPTS. Stafford leads the league with 30 touchdown passes and has thrown at least two touchdowns in all but two games. Carolina has the ninth-highest EPA per dropback on defense and has racked up only 18 sacks while being 31st in pressure rate.
Other Options – Josh Allen ($7,500), Justin Herbert ($6,500)
Value
Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,800) – I put Brissett into the value section maybe five weeks ago. He hasn’t left this spot since. Since entering the starting lineup, Brissett has put up over 20 FPTS in all six contests. He’s thrown two touchdowns in all but one of those games and has four games with at least 44 pass attempts, including a 47-of-57 performance for 452 yards two weeks ago. I won’t stop, can’t stop, will not stop clicking on Brissett. At least not until he stops. Brissett started out at $4,200, so there’s been inflation, but the matchup is a good one because the Buccaneers run defense is so tough that the path of least resistance is through the air.
Other Options – Trevor Lawrence ($5,400), Kirk Cousins ($4,800), Cam Ward ($4,600), Tyrod Taylor ($4,300), Shedeur Sanders ($4,200)
Running Back
Stud
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills ($6,300) – It stinks that Warren and Kenneth Gainwell are both playing around 50% of the snaps, but Gainwell is more of the pass-catching back. Warren has received double-digit carries in every game he’s played with a high of 18, which happened twice. He’s put up double-digit FPTS seven times with a high of 22.8 FPTS. Buffalo is one of the worst at defending the run because the unit has been constructed to stop Patrick Mahomes. On the season, the Bills are allowing 5.3 yards per carry and have given up 17 rushing touchdowns and the fourth-highest EPA per carry. Pittsburgh wants to ground and pound anyways, but especially in this matchup to keep Josh Allen off the field.
Other Options – Bijan Robinson ($8,500), De’Von Achane ($8,300), James Cook ($7,600), Kyren Williams ($6,600), Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,500)
Value
Devin Neal, New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins ($5,000) – Neal played 74% of the snaps last week with Alvin Kamara getting injured. Kamara has not practiced all week, so Neal could be in line for a feature role. Neal is questionable, though, with an ankle issue, but he has been a limited participant in practices. Neal carried seven times for 18 yards last week but caught five of seven targets for 43 yards. Miami has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns, 4.9 yards per carry and the 10th-most receptions to running backs.
Other Options – Breece Hall ($6,000), Woody Marks ($5,800), Zach Charbonnet ($4,800) if Kenneth Walker III is out, Tyler Allgeier ($4,500), Audric Estime ($4,000) if Kamara and Neal are out.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings ($9,500) – JSN has failed to put up at least 20 FPTS only once, and that was way back in Week 4. He has three games over 30 FPTS with a high 40.1 FPTS, so the floor/ceiling combo is one of the best at the position. JSN is tied for the fourth-most targets in the league.
Other Options – Puka Nacua ($9,000), Davante Adams ($7,500), Jaylen Waddle ($6,800), Nico Collins ($6,700), Ladd McConkey ($6,300)
Value
John Metchie III, New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons ($3,800) – After being a non-factor for much of the season, Metchie has been thrust into a prominent role due to all the injuries. Over the last two weeks, Metchie has received over 80% of the snaps. He’s responded with two double-digit FPTS games, which included a touchdown in each contest. The passing game in New York is much more functional with Tyrod Taylor under center instead of Justin Fields. Metchie was tied for the team lead with seven targets last week.
Other Options – Michael Wilson ($5,900), Jakobi Meyers ($5,700), Khalil Shakir ($5,500), Parker Washington ($5,400), Darnell Mooney ($5,300), Chris Godwin Jr. ($5,000)
Tight End
Stud
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,800) – McBride has a whopping 109 targets on the season, that’s good for the second-most in the entire NFL, eight behind Ja’Marr Chase. He’s failed to produce at least 10 FPTS only once this season while going over 30 FPTS two times. Tampa Bay’s defense is excellent at stopping the run, so the Cardinals will be tilting toward the air in this one, and McBride should be the main guy once again.
Other Options – Oronde Gadsden II ($4,300), Juwan Johnson ($4,200), Cade Otton ($4,100)
Value
Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers ($2,800) – With Tyler Higbee placed on the injured reserve list, Parkinson has moved up the depth chart at tight end for the Rams. The volume hasn’t been robust (five, two and four targets), but he’s scored a touchdown in every game and finished with 14.1, 9.1 and 14.1 FPTS. Stafford is feeling good and slinging the rock all over the field, so Parkinson is always in play to reap the benefits.
Other Options – Brenton Strange ($3,700), Harold Fannin Jr.. ($3,400), Gunnar Helm ($2,600)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Seahawks DST vs. Minnesota Vikings ($3,900) – Seattle is third in pressure rate and has racked up 36 sacks on the season. The unit is also 12th with 13 takeaways. Minnesota will either have a recently-concussed J.J. McCarthy under center, who has been horrid recently, or the rookie Max Brosmer, who would be making his first career NFL start on the road in Seattle. Seattle DST has five double-digit FPTS games with a high of 21 FPTS.
Other Options – Chargers DST ($4,000), Rams DST ($3,800), Jaguars DST ($3,700), Falcons DST ($3,500), Dolphins DST ($3,300)
Value
Texans DST at Indianapolis Colts ($2,900) – After a torrid start to the season, Daniel Jones has been the Daniel Jones we’ve come to know and despise. The league has adjusted and you know DeMeco Ryans has been taking notes and has a thing or two for the Colts. It helps that the Texans have one of the best secondaries in the league, posting the lowest EPA per dropback while intercepting 12 passes and allowing only 10 touchdowns. The unit is allowing a paltry 58.9 completion percentage and put up at least five FPTS in every game this season with five over 10 FPTS.
Other Options – Browns DST ($3,000)
