Ranked Big 12 rivals are on a collision course out West tonight. #20 Arizona State has been on a roll, led by backup quarterback Jeff Sims. The Sun Devils will face one of their biggest tests yet against an old foe. #25 Arizona has impressed recently as well, reeling off four straight wins. Quarterback Noah Fifita has impressed for the Wildcats and their lethal offense.
Which of these two schools has the edge going into tonight’s pivotal matchup? Arizona enters this contest as 1.5-point favorites (-110) over Arizona State, with the over/under set at 47.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Arizona vs. Arizona State prediction, preview
Contrary to what the public might think, these teams are built on defense. Both squads rank within the conference’ top five teams in total yards allowed. Arizona’s strength is in limiting big plays through the air. That’s good and bad news for ASU tonight. Sims isn’t much of a passer, sometimes struggling to find open receivers. Granted, the absence of Jordyn Tyson played a role as well. However, the fifth-year QB is a terrific scrambler. Through eight games, he’s picked up 423 rushing yards. That could do damage combined with starting running back Raleek Brown.
Sims has shown a proneness for turnovers, tossing two interceptions over his previous three outings. In comparison, Arizona leads the Big 12 with 16 total picks. The Wildcats have forced ten turnovers over their previous four games, including five combined vs. quality Cincinnati and Baylor offenses. Arizona State, without quarterback Sam Leavitt, might be a downgrade compared to those two. AU’s ability up front, while solid, lags behind its secondary.
On the other side, Fifita has turned heads under center. Through 11 games, the junior has thrown for 2,677 yards and 25 touchdowns while coughing up five interceptions. Over his previous five games, the gunslinger has notched ten touchdowns while surrendering just one pick. However, Fifita was terrible when these teams met last season, a 49-7 blowout in favor of Arizona State.
With that being said, this year’s edition of the Territorial Cup should be much more competitive. Arizona has shown clear improvement compared to last season’s four-win club. That’s especially true on offense, where the Sun Devils have given up the sixth-most passing yards per game to opponents (220.2). On paper, that should play to Fifita’s advantage. However, it’s worth noting that the Wildcats are somewhat one-dimensional. Ismail Mahdi leads the team with just 738 rushing yards. Without a strong ground presence, airing it out may prove difficult.
Arizona vs. Arizona State pick, best bet
Fifita is a force to be reckoned with, and he knows how to spread the ball around. Four different AU players have tallied at least 300 receiving yards. Regardless, a mediocre run game could pose problems for the Wildcats. In comparison, Arizona State’s ability to control time of possession could prove crucial. At home in Tempe, I’m leaning towards the Sun Devils as underdogs.
