The three-game Thanksgiving NFL slate will close down with a matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens.
Joe Burrow will make his long-awaited return after last playing in Week 2 due to a Grade 3 Turf Toe injury that required surgery. Cincinnati has struggled to stay afloat without him, slipping to 3-8 on the year.
The Ravens also do not hold their desired outlook, with a 6-5 record to start the year. Baltimore is tied with Pittsburgh for the top spot in the AFC North and still controls its destiny from here on out.
Looking at the odds for this Week 13 matchup, the Ravens enter as seven-point favorites and hold -375 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Bengals hold +295 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 51.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action outside of backing a side or total. This article will look at my top three favorite player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 13 Turkey Day matchup.
Bengals at Ravens Best Prop Bets
Lamar Jackson Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-111)
It has not been a stellar year by Lamar Jackson’s sky-high standards. But the two-time MVP will be licking his chops at this matchup with an incredibly vulnerable Bengals defense attempting to slow him down. Cincinnati ranks dead last in points and yards allowed, including last in passing yards conceded and 31st in net yards per pass attempt. Drake Maye carved the Bengals up for 294 passing yards last week, Aaron Rodgers and Mason Rudolph combined for 232 passing yards the week before that, Caleb Williams threw for 280 yards, and even Justin Fields tallied 244 passing yards just across their past four games.
Jackson is averaging just 199.4 passing yards per game this season, but he averaged 245.4 passing yards per game last year. He has still thrown for as many as 288 passing yards in a game this season, and the Ravens have increasingly leaned on their quarterback’s arm as the year progressed. After averaging 23.8 pass attempts in the first four games, he is averaging 25.0 pass attempts across the past four. This will especially be the case given the matchup. Derrick Henry has also performed below his high standard this year as part of the motivation for this.
The Bengals have given up chunk gains and broken coverages all season. Count on Zay Flowers using his speed to take the top off throughout, and for Mark Andrews to pick up significant gains over the middle. Far less talented quarterbacks have had success, so expect Jackson to have a clear path to his best statistical output of the season. This is a perfect get-right spot for the former MVP, and look for him to surpass the 235.5-passing yard total.
Mark Andrews to Record 50+ Receiving Yards (+150)
One area where the Bengals are especially weak is at defending tight ends. On the season overall, they are allowing an average of 6.9 receptions on 10.1 targets for 87.5 yards per game to the tight end position. This is 17 more yards than any other team in the league. Hunter Henry is fresh off a seven-reception performance for 115 yards and a touchdown in last week’s matchup.
Mark Andrews might not be in line for quite this type of performance, given his output this year. The three-time Pro Bowler has pulled in 33 receptions for 285 receiving yards and five touchdowns so far this season. His 25.9 receiving yards per game mark is a career-worst. But this is still the same guy who has averaged as many as 80.1 receiving yards over a season. Even with these numbers being low, Andrews still ranks second on the Ravens in each of these receiving categories.
The standard receiving prop for Andrews is set at 39.5 yards for the matchup. But I am pushing it to 50+ yards for some added juice. He pulled in 68 and 55 yards in the pair of matchups with the Bengals last year. Expect Andrews to be in line for a strong game in this matchup and also have a chance at a season-best performance. Look for him to record 50+ receiving yards for the third straight matchup against the Bengals and capitalize against this weak defense.
Joe Burrow to Record 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+246)
It is admirable that Joe Burrow even worked his way back to the field, given the context of the season. But he did not return just to be there. Burrow is intent on giving this team every chance possible at a postseason run. The two-time Comeback Player of the Year had attempted just 36 passes on the season before going down with an injury, with only two passing touchdowns tallied. However, he led the NFL with 43 passing touchdowns last year and threw for 3+ passing scores in 10 of the 17 games.
Ja’Marr Chase will be fresh off his one-week suspension and hungry to put that behind him. He has eight touchdowns in eight games against the Ravens in his career, along with 962 yards through the air. Cincinnati’s offense is among the best in the league when healthy, and even with Tee Higgins sidelined due to a concussion, it is in the conversation. The Bengals are a pass-first team, with or without Burrow, and rank 27th in rushing touchdowns compared to fourth in passing scores this season.
Count on Burrow being the top vehicle for steering Cincinnati into the end zone any time it is in range. The Ravens rank 11th in passing touchdowns conceded and have given up four passing scores in two games this year. Expect the Bengals’ star to be ready to pick up where he left off from last season’s strong success now that he is healthy. The Bengals will need to put up points to get their desired result in what is an expected shootout, so count on Burrow to reach paydirt through the air 3+ times.
