The Georgetown Hoyas (5-0) and Dayton Flyers (5-1) are set to face off Thursday night, going head-to-head in the ESPN Events Invitational on Thanksgiving Day. The Big East vs. Atlantic 10 showdown will tip things off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Flyers are 1.5-point favorites in the matchup with -115 moneyline odds, and the total has been set at 146.5 points. Here is a preview of the holiday special featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Georgetown vs. Dayton Preview
Georgetown Preview
The Hoyas put the college basketball world on notice when they defeated Kentucky by 14 points in a road preseason exhibition game. After beating Morgan State in their regular season opener, Georgetown bolstered its resume with a 70-60 win at Maryland. In between double-digit victories over Binghamton and Wagner, the Hoyas also ended Clemson’s undefeated season with a 79-74 result in Washington, D.C.
Arizona transfer KJ Lewis has been the engine of Georgetown’s offense and defense. He is averaging 17.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game, all while leading the Big East with 2.8 steals per game. Lewis is shooting 53.5% from two, 35.7% from three and 80.6% from the free throw line. Malik Mack, in his second year post-transferring from Harvard, is taking even more shots than Lewis, and he’s doing plenty of damage from beyond the arc. He is hitting 37.9% of his three-pointers on 5.8 attempts per game – on top of his 90.0% free throw percentage on 4.0 attempts per game – en route to 15.4 points, 3.8 assists and 3.6 rebounds per game.
As for former USC and St. John’s standout Vincent Iwuchukwu, who was averaging 11.8 points and 2.0 blocks per game, he is out for six-to-eight weeks due to an undisclosed medical procedure. Caleb Williams is the Hoyas’ next-most productive forward with 11.4 points and 4.8 rebounds per game.
Georgetown ranks No. 2 in the country with just 7.8 turnovers per game. Their 10th-ranked 6.4 blocks per game are less applicable to future matchups, however, with Iwuchukwu out. The same could go for their opponents’ bottom-20 41.9% shooting on two-point field goal attempts.
Coach Ed Cooley’s squad is ranked No. 80 in the updated KenPom ratings. They rank No. 74 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 96 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Dayton Preview
Following an 88-48 win over Canisius in the season-opener, Dayton cut things a little close with its ensuing 77-71 victory against UMBC. The Flyers followed up that near upset by losing 74-62 to in-state foe Cincinnati. Dayton bested Bethune-Cookman in a 91-82 shootout a few days later, then beat Marquette 77-71 in overtime and North Carolina Central 74-55 back at home.
Two of the Flyers’ most effective players could not be more dissimilar on the surface. Senior guard Javon Bennett is 5-foot-11 and 155 pounds, which stands in sharp contrast to 7-foot-1 French sophomore Amael L’Etang. And yet, both Bennett and L’Etang have established themselves as dynamic scorers in the early going this season. Bennett is averaging 16.7 points and 3.8 assists per game while shooting 62.9% on 5.8 two-point attempts per game, 27.8% on 6.0 three-point attempts per game and 86.7% on 5.0 free-throw attempts per game. As for L’Etang, he is averaging 12.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per game while shooting 60.6% on 5.5 two-point attempts per game, 35.3% on 2.8 three-point attempts per game and 72.0% on 4.2 free-throw attempts per game.
De’Shayne Montgomery, a transfer from Mount St. Mary’s and Georgia, is averaging 15.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 2.8 steals per game. Keonte Jones, a 6-foot-6, 23-year-old who transferred in from Cal State Northridge, is contributing 8.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.2 steals and 1.0 block per game.
In the updated KenPom rankings, Dayton comes in at No. 71 overall. They boast the No. 45 adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 102 adjusted offensive efficiency in the nation.
Georgetown vs. Dayton Pick, Best Bet
While KenPom has Dayton ranked nine spots above Georgetown, T-Rank has the Hoyas eight spots above the Flyers. Analytically, it’s as close to a toss-up as you can get. The Flyers already beat a Big East opponent – Marquette – in a true road game. The Golden Eagles are two spots above the Hoyas in both KenPom and T-Rank, so they constitute a comparable matchup. But while Dayton has the slight edge for a reason, Georgetown is undefeated with two high-major wins under its belt – not to mention the residual glow coming from their preseason success. The Hoyas also rank No. 8 in free throws makes per game so far this season, so they could be the ones to come through in the clutch should the game stay tight.
Instead of making a moneyline bet, taking the under could be the smarter play. It took Dayton and Marquette overtime to hit 148 total points. Dayton’s game against Cincinnati only reached 136. The Flyers’ 68.8 possessions per 40 minutes – which ranks No. 228 in the country – plays into those lower final figures. Georgetown moves at a considerably slower pace than Cincinnati and Marquette, as both of those schools rank top-50 in possessions per 40 minutes. The Hoyas and Terrapins scored 130 combined points a few weeks back, while the Clemson game got to 153.
Look for the Georgetown-Dayton game to turn into a bit of a slog, especially since the Hoyas don’t turn to ball over and draw a lot of fouls. There shouldn’t be very many fast break opportunities, nor should the energy in Kissimmee, Florida, fuel too many momentum-shifting runs on either side.
