Despite the fact that I’m Canadian, U.S. Thanksgiving has always been one of my favorite holidays. I mean, how often do you get a Thursday afternoon full of football? It’s difficult not to love.
Today, we’ll see the continuation of a tradition that has taken place every year — aside from WWII — since 1934, as the Lions will take the field in Detroit on Turkey Day. They’ll welcome the Packers in a tilt that has some serious juice in the NFC North standings. That’s a lot of history and a lot of stakes. However, that’s not what this article is all about. We’re just here to break down the game’s first touchdown scorer odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook and make a few picks.
Let’s get into it.
Packers vs. Lions First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Amon-Ra St. Brown First Touchdown Scorer (+750)
You have to acknowledge Jahmyr Gibbs (+425) when breaking down these odds, especially after the running back compiled 264 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns in Week 12. Still, it’s difficult to run on the Packers, let alone find the end zone. Green Bay is one of nine teams surrendering fewer than 100 opponent rushing yards per game this season, while it also ranks ninth in the NFL in defensive EPA per opponent rushing attempt (-0.06). Only two RBs have actually scored a touchdown against the Packers since the beginning of Week 4: Rico Dowdle in Week 9 and Devin Singletary in Week 11. It seems far more likely that if Detroit scores the first touchdown of this contest, it’ll be through the air, not on the ground. If that’s the case, Amon-Ra St. Brown has to be the focus. St. Brown already has nine receiving scores through 11 games and a massive reason why is his usage in the red zone. The former All-Pro wideout has seen a league-high 46.7% target share inside the 20 — no other player is even above 38%. That is quite the monopoly.
Christian Watson First Touchdown Scorer (+1300)
It’s so difficult to get a read on the Packers’ target shares through 12 weeks of action, as the roster has been in a constant state of flux due to injury. For instance, despite not playing since Week 9, Tucker Kraft (knee) still leads all Green bay skill-position players in red zone targets (12). On top of that, the Packers have dealt with ailments to Jayden Reed (foot/shoulder), Dontayvion Wicks (calf) and Matthew Golden (wrist). Thankfully, Christian Watson is finally healthy and giving Jordan Love a consistent threat in the aerial attack. No Green Bay receiver has played more snaps than Watson that past two weeks (92), as the veteran is in possession of a 76.0% snap rate. It’s also a span of time where Watson leads all Packers players in targets (12), receptions (9) and receiving yards (95). Two of those opportunities came in the red zone, and Watson translated both into touchdowns, finding pay dirt twice in Week 11 against the Giants. At the moment, Watson appears to be his team’s No. 1 WR, yet his odds don’t quite reflect that. Take advantage.
