There’s little more distinctly American than the NFL on Thanksgiving, and the league’s schedule-makers put together a fantastic slate of offerings for 2025. The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions will kick the day off, with the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys following, and the 8:20 p.m. ET finale is a marquee quarterback matchup between the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and the Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow.
Both quarterbacks have missed lots of time with injuries, but it’s no surprise that since Jackson returned, he’s helped his team to four straight wins and a spot atop the AFC North once again. As for Burrow, he’s missed too much time to impact the playoff race, but his return will be highly anticipated in Southwestern Ohio regardless.
The Ravens are seven-point favorites for tonight’s divisional clash at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 51.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around the two-time MVP.
Best Lamar Jackson Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Lamar Jackson 240+ Passing Yards (+103)
Jackson has had some quiet games since returning from the hamstring injury that cost him three weeks, averaging only 181.5 yards per game, but it’d be a fool’s errand to doubt the all-time career leader in adjusted yards per attempt and passer rating. He’s clearly not 100% healthy, having been listed on the injury report in each of the past two weeks with lower-body injuries, but he’s historically pushed through injuries to produce at an MVP level. Three mediocre games against teams with bad offenses and good defenses haven’t done anything to change that perception.
Cincinnati has the exact opposite profile, especially with Burrow under center. This season, the Bengals have had arguably the league’s worst passing defense, allowing the most yards per game, the second-most yards per attempt, and the fourth-highest passer rating, so Jackson should have no trouble carving up their secondary. Plus, most of Jackson’s struggles (by his standards) can be tied to his poor performance under duress, but that shouldn’t be an issue against a Cincinnati team that has gotten pressure at the fourth-lowest rate. On the flip side, the Bengals’ offense is good enough even with Tee Higgins sidelined that the game could turn into a shootout, which would keep Jackson throwing.
Lamar Jackson U26.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
Taking the greatest rushing quarterback in NFL history to go under his yardage total feels wrong, but this season, Jackson hasn’t done much damage with his legs, averaging by far a career low in attempts per game, yards per game, and rushing success rate. He’s failed to crack 20 rushing yards in three of his four games since returning to action, which likely stems at least in part from his nagging lower-body injuries. Jackson has also yet to attempt double-digit runs in any game this season.
His line is higher than his average across his last four games because Cincinnati’s rushing defense is nearly as awful as its secondary. This season, the Bengals have conceded the second-most rushing yards per game and been worth the third-fewest expected points added. However, that’s mostly a result of their weakness against opposing running backs; they’ve limited quarterbacks to the ninth-fewest yards, and their inability to get pressure means Jackson won’t be forced to scramble. Baltimore should still inflict plenty of pain on the ground, but it’ll mostly come from Derrick Henry.
