Thanksgiving Thursday brings more than just turkey and dressing — three quality NFL matchups take place across the day with the first kicking off at 1 p.m. EST. The Detroit Lions are 7-4 and looking to gain ground over the 7-3-1 Green Bay Packers in a traditional NFC North battle on Turkey Day.
Here are the best Amon-Ra St. Brown prop bets for Lions vs. Packers on Thanksgiving Thursday to kick off Week 13.
Best Amon-Ra St. Brown prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
The unquestioned top target in this Lions offense, Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to dominate NFL defenses week in and week out. The 26-year-old has three straight seasons of 100+ catches and 1,000+ receiving yards to his name, and he’s on pace to add another one over the coming weeks. He ranks fourth among wideouts with 75 receptions and 884 yards through 11 games, while his nine touchdowns are the second-most of any player at the position. To top it off, St. Brown’s PFF receiving grade of 90.0 comes in fifth, and his connection with quarterback Jared Goff remains clear as ever with the 11th-best passer rating when targeted. Despite the fact his aDOT sits at just 9.0 yards with 11.8 yards per reception — both marks outside the top-50 receivers — the fifth-year star thrives in his role working underneath and across the middle of the field.
The Lions should call his number early and often on Thursday in this crucial division matchup. With both teams competing for a postseason berth and fighting for positioning in the NFC North, the stakes are quite high and should lead to a hard-fought battle. The Packers are a difficult matchup despite the 18th-best defensive EPA/pass, especially since the secondary allows the fifth-fewest passing yards per game and fewest yards per pass of any team. Plus, Green Bay has an impressive pass rush that’ll pressure the quarterback often, forcing Goff to throw the ball quickly before getting hit.
Those factors don’t necessarily sound encouraging for St. Brown’s production, but could actually lead to an even better day for the wideout given the context. The Packers also excel against the run and could force Detroit to turn to the aerial attack, in which case the Lions’ top wideout will see plenty of targets. Like mentioned above, Goff will have to operate in the quick game with little time for downfield routes intended for Jameson Williams to develop, and with Sam LaPorta on IR, there are more checkdown opportunities available for St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs.
With St. Brown’s prop bet lines set at 7.5 catches and 80.5 yards on DraftKings Sportsbook with +110 odds to score an anytime touchdown, I quite like the volume line as well as the scoring wager. The reasons outlined earlier make a strong case for over 7.5 receptions, a line he’s surpassed in five of 11 contests this season. In what should be a competitive game against a defense that forces opponents to dink and dunk, there’s a great chance the Lions lean on St. Brown. Of course, the anytime touchdown bet is intriguing as well given how reliable of a red-zone threat he is with a 39.5% target share inside the 20, one of the NFL’s best.
Best Bet: Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime touchdown (+110)
Click the odds of this bet to tail!
