How about we have ourselves a paydirt Turkey Day? Stepping in here for the venerable Jeff Pratt once more, who’s taking some well-earned time off for the holiday. Me? What can I say—can’t keep myself away from the good old American pastime that are touchdown celebrations on Thanksgiving. We’ve got three games for tomorrow—Lions vs. Packers; Cowboys vs. Chiefs; Ravens vs. Bengals as the nightcap—so I’ve gone ahead and popped in two-to-three of my favorite anytime touchdown bets around which I’ll be anchoring some parlays.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Packers at Lions (1:00pm ET)
Christian Watson (+195)
Christian Watson at +195 is still my favorite Green Bay touchdown swing on Thanksgiving. Since returning, he’s quietly turned 24 targets into 17 catches, 283 yards, and two scores across five games, a 70.8% catch rate that screams chemistry with Jordan Love. Detroit’s secondary is the right kind of messy for a vertical alpha: 120 receptions and 15 touchdowns allowed to wide receivers, 13.8 yards per catch, and 7.2 yards per attempt overall. They’re not heating anyone up either, sitting on an 8.4% sack rate that should give Love clean pockets inside the dome. That indoor track removes weather from the equation and lets Green Bay lean into tempo if the Lions offense jumps early.
With Josh Jacobs still a knee question (he’s playing, but eventually, LaFleur’s gonna have to let Love throw inside goal line packages) and Detroit living in high-scoring scripts, I expect the Packers’ pass rate to climb, not shrink. Watson just led the team in snaps, routes, targets, and air yards in Week 12 before game script turned run-heavy. If this one stays competitive, that usage profile plus Detroit’s 21 passing touchdowns allowed gives us multiple paths home. At +195, I’m still willing to ride the ceiling on his downfield and red-zone role. He’s my preferred Packers piece for touchdown exposure.s sk tou sken akschrist ion Watson is going to score a touchdown in the fourth quarter versus the Lions on
David Montgomery (+130)
David Montgomery at +130 is exactly the kind of boring Thanksgiving bet that quietly pays for the dessert tray. He owns Detroit’s goal-line role, projecting for 0.43 rushing touchdowns and 0.06 receiving, a 0.49 total TD projection that implies about a 49% score rate. The market is pricing him at roughly 41.7% implied probability, so we’re getting a little edge before we even talk matchup. Gibbs gets the flash volume, but Montgomery is still forecast for double-digit carries with the high-leverage touches inside the five. Green Bay’s defense is better at erasing explosives than winning repeated short-yardage collisions, which fits how Detroit wants to live. The Lions are comfortable stacking methodical drives, then handing the keys to Montgomery when the field compresses.
Indoors at Ford Field, on a short week, I expect Detroit to lean on established roles rather than get cute in scoring range. If this game tilts toward a high-scoring environment, the Lions should see multiple red-zone trips, and Monty is first in line to cash them. At +140 with nearly 49% TD odds by projection, I’m happy to hitch one of my Thanksgiving tickets to his shoulder pads.
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Cowboys vs. Chiefs (4:30pm ET)
Patrick Mahomes (+380)
Patrick Mahomes at +400 is my favorite “bet on chaos” angle in this game. He’s not just scrambling to survive; he’s functionally their most dangerous runner. 130 rushing yards on 22 carries at 5.9 per pop, two rushing scores in the first two games, and stretches where he’s outgained his own backs in yards, first downs, and touchdowns. Dallas has already let a quarterback score on the ground in three straight home games and is giving up 29.4 points per game in that building.
Kansas City leads the league in pass rate, which means a steady diet of dropbacks, and every red-zone dropback is a live rushing rep when coverage wins. Isiah Pacheco’s return helps move the chains, but in high-leverage downs I expect Reid to trust Mahomes’ legs as the trump card. At +400, we’re being asked to pay a 20% implied tag on a player whose usage, matchup, and game script all point to real rushing touchdown equity. On a slate full of obvious skill guys, I’m happy to plant a flag on the quarterback.
Xavier Worthy (+185)
Xavier Worthy at +185 is the pure ceiling swing in this Cowboys–Chiefs track meet. He just came back with five grabs for 83 yards against Baltimore, immediately reminding everyone why his speed changes the geometry of the field. Kansas City uses him to stretch safeties and punish any corner who panics with his eyes. Dallas sits near the bottom of the league against the pass and just coughed up nearly 300 yards to a middling Eagles air game. This is not a coverage group you trust to stay perfect against four quarters of vertical stress.
At +185, the market is baking in a one-in-three hit rate, but Worthy’s routes are drawn to flip the scoreboard in a single snap. With defensive attention tilted toward Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce, Worthy should see plenty of one-on-one chances against second corners and nickel bodies. In a game that profiles as a shootout, I want at least one ticket tied to Kansas City’s designated home-run bat.
Jake Ferguson (+220)
Jake Ferguson at +220 is the adult in the room for touchdown volume. Seven touchdowns across his last nine games with 19 red-zone targets is not a blip; that’s a featured role near the stripe. Dak trusts him in traffic, and the conversion rate on those looks sits north of 80%, which is outrageous for a tight end. Kansas City’s defense has been quietly soft against tight ends lately, allowing an 84% catch rate and two scores to the position over the last three weeks.
With the Chiefs devoting resources to CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens on the outside, Ferguson gets linebackers and safeties in space he’s already proven he can win against. Dallas plays a balanced style that reliably produces red-zone trips rather than streaky explosives, and Ferguson is one of the first reads when the field compresses. At +220, with a 32.3% implied chance versus his recent scoring clip, we’re still buying a discount on how this offense actually finishes drives.
Ravens vs. Bengals (8:20pm ET)
Andrei Iosivas (+295)
Andrei Iosivas at +295 is the midrange Bengals piece I want in this divisional shootout. With Tee Higgins out, he slides into a clean WR2 role and projects for 2.93 catches, 36.62 yards, and a 0.26 touchdown probability. That is a 26% score rate against a 25% implied tag, a small but real edge. We have already seen the spikes when his routes climb: 18.0 points in Week 9, 13.2 in Week 5, then 10.6 last week as he warmed up again. With Ja’Marr Chase commanding bracket coverage, Iosivas should live in single coverage and see one-on-one looks near the goal line.
Bengals–Ravens tends to run hot on the scoreboard, and Burrow’s return from injured reserve boosts every passing-game projection. If Baltimore’s offense forces Cincinnati into a pass-heavy posture, even a modest bump above those 2.93 projected targets tilts his touchdown odds meaningfully. At +295, I like buying that combination of role, environment, and a projection that already leans very slightly in our favor.
Isaiah Likely (+220)
Isaiah Likely at +220 is a sneaky-correlated way to attack how Cincinnati actually loses games. The Bengals are getting roasted by tight ends: most yards, most touchdowns and a ridiculous 19.5 fantasy points per game allowed to the position, with 1.18 tight end touchdowns surrendered on average and more than eight yards per target. Twenty-seven percent of targets against them go to tight ends, easily the highest rate in the league. Baltimore’s target tree has Mark Andrews on top, but Likely still sits fifth in overall targets with 20, turning them into 13 catches and 128 yards at nearly 10 yards per catch while owning roughly 15% of their red-zone looks.
If Lou Anarumo loads his coverages toward Andrews and Zay Flowers, Likely ends up on linebackers and safeties in condensed space with Derrick Henry forcing heavy boxes. At +220, the book is pricing about a 31% hit rate in a matchup where Baltimore tight ends project for an outsized share of the touchdown pie.
Most-Bet Anytime TD Scorers for Thanksgiving NFL
Check back for these before kickoff on Thanksgiving Thursday!
