College basketball is in full swing with Feast Week underway and plenty of the top programs facing off. The action will continue at the MGM Grand is Las Vegas with Notre Dame facing Houston today.
Looking at the odds, Houston enters as a 10.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Notre Dame holds +525 odds on the Moneyline with the game total set at 132.5 points.
Notre Dame vs. Houston prediction, preview
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are off to a 5-2 start to the season. They have picked up victories over Long Island University, Detroit Mercy, Eastern Illinois, Bellarmine, and Rutgers. Notre Dame has fallen short to Ohio State and Kansas. They hold a 3-4 record against the spread, and the under has cashed in three of their seven games.
Micah Shrewsberry’s ground returned 55.1% of the scoring production and 50% of last year’s roster. Markus Burton leads the team in scoring once again, averaging 20.3 points, 2.4 assists, and 2.3 rebounds per game. Jalen Haralson and Braeden Shrewsberry each also average in double figures at 13.0 and 11.3 points per game. Shrewsberry is shooting 51.2% from beyond the three-point arc on 5.9 perimeter attempts per game. Carson Towt dominates the boards at 11.3 rebounds per game along with 6.0 points.
The Fighting Irish average 78.1 points per game, which ranks 188th in the country, and hold opponents to 67.4 points per game, which ranks 78th. They rank 72nd in three-point percentage, 96th in field goal percentage, and do an excellent job limiting opponents on the boards. Notre Dame is limiting opponents to just 29.3 rebounds per game, which is the 23rd-best rate.
Houston enters this matchup ranked third in the AP Poll. They are off to a 6-1 start to the season with victories over Lehigh, Towson, Oakland, Auburn, Rider, and Syracuse. The Cougars are looking to bounce back from their first loss yesterday, losing to Tennessee 76-73. They are 2-5 against the spread, and the over has cashed in four of their seven games thus far.
Kelvin Sampson’s squad has already showcased its high-level defense as their expected identity. Houston returned 44.2% of the minutes played and 42.3% of their scoring production from last year’s team, which fell just short in the National Championship game last year. They are holding opponents to 59.6 points per game, which is the fifth-best rate in college basketball. The Cougars also rank 43rd in opponent field goal percentage and 19th in opponent three-point percentage. Offensively, they are scoring 76.1 points per game, which ranks 218th.
Kingston Flemings headlines the offensive production with 17.3 points and 5.0 assists while shooting 55.0% from long range. Emanuel Sharp is a tone-setter on both sides of the ball with 16.3 points per game and 3.4 rebounds, leading the team with 7.0 three-point attempts per game and connecting at a 36.7% rate. Milos Uzan is the lone other player averaging in double figures with 12.6 points, 4.4 assists, and 3.4 rebounds while coming off 26 and 17-point outings in the past two games. Chris Cenac Jr. leads the team with 8.6 rebounds and 9.7 points while Joseph Tugler leads the Big 12 with 2.7 blocks per game.
Notre Dame vs. Houston pick, best bet
Houston is the better team, but 10.5 points is a large spread, especially given their 2-5 against the spread record. This will be their third game in three nights, and they are looking to bounce back from their first loss. Tennessee is a respectable opponent to fall short to, and Houston led by as many as 11 throughout.
However, it is tough to talk yourself into Notre Dame having a basketball advantage in this game. They are a bit limited offensively, and will be facing one of the top defenses in the country. The Fighting Irish have their own struggles with the spread and have failed to cover in four of their past five. They have done a great job limiting opponents on the glass this year, but Houston will push them in a way that no opponent has just yet. The Cougars send multiple bodies at the glass on every possession, and are averaging 14.3 offensive rebounds per game.
Houston has won each of their past 27 games against non-AP ranked opponents, while Notre Dame has dropped their last 12 games against top 5 AP-ranked teams. This also includes 21 of their last 22 against Top 10 teams.
Expect Houston’s defense to impose themselves and for Notre Dame to struggle to score the ball. Even with fatigue in mind, there will be a fire lit under the Cougars after the half-court prayer by Milos Uzan at the buzzer went unanswered last night. This is a team with legitimate National Championship aspirations and needs to beat up on these types of teams. Ultimately, count on Notre Dame’s scoring struggles to pave the way for Houston to build a comfortable double digit lead and blowout victory. Expect Houston to get back in the win column by more than 10.5 points and cover the spread for the third time this year, with the gap in the talent level of these teams becoming evident.
