There is plenty of high-level college basketball across tonight’s slate, with the season now in full swing. One of the premier matchups will take place between the North Carolina Wolfpack and Texas Longhorns. This is the fifth-place game of the Maui Invitational.
Looking at the odds, NC State enters as a 2.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Texas holds +124 odds on the Moneyline with the game total set at 161.5 points.
NC State vs. Texas prediction, preview
The North Carolina State Wolfpack are off to a 5-1 start to the season. They have picked up victories over NC Central, UAB, UNC Greensboro, VCU and Boise State, with the lone loss coming against Seton Hall. NC State ranks 23rd in the AP Poll and 26th in KenPom rankings. The Wolfpack are 4-2 against the spread and the over has cashed in four of their six games.
Will Wade is off to a strong start of his first season at the helm. The Wolfpack play with a high level of pace, averaging 93.0 points per game, which ranks 23rd. They also rank 20th in offensive rating, 23rd in field-goal percentage and 14th in three-point percentage at 41.7%, while attempting the 68th-most perimeter shots in the country. Defensively, NC State is allowing 72.3 points per game, which ranks 169th, and it ranks 122nd in defensive rating. It ranks 316th in opponent three-point attempts allowed, but teams are shooting just 27.7% on these attempts.
Texas Tech transfer Darrion Williams leads the team with 20.2 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.2 assists while shooting an ACC-best 56.7% from beyond the three-point arc on 5.0 perimeter shots per game. McNeese State transfer Quadir Copeland leads the team with 4.5 assists along with his 11.2 points while Ven-Allen Lubin headlines the rebounding production with 7.2 boards and 10.3 points per contest. Paul McNeil Jr., Tre Holloman and Matt Able each also average in double-figures.
The Texas Longhorns enter with a 5-2 record with their pair of losses coming against Duke and Arizona State. They have picked up wins over Lafayette, Fairleigh Dickinson, Kansas City, Rider and Chaminade. Texas ranks 43rd in KenPom rankings. The Longhorns are 3-3 against the spread and 3-3 to the over/under, with the matchup against DII Chaminade not offering odds.
It is also a new era for Texas with Sean Miller taking control of the program. It is scoring 89.3 points per game, which ranks 44th in the country, and is allowing the 85th-fewest points at 68.3 per game. Texas ranks ninth in the country in rebounds per game, 34th in team field-goal percentage and ranks 48th in offensive rating. It is allowing the fifth-fewest assists per game to opponents and ranks 61st in defensive rating.
Xavier transfer Dailyn Swain followed his coach to the new program and leads the team with 16.9 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. Matas Vokietaitis leads the interior production with 15.9 points, 7.6 assists and 1.4 blocks per game. Returning starter Tramon Mark is the lone other player averaging in double figures with 11.3 points, 3.1 rebounds and 2.9 assists. Jordan Pope and Chendall Weaver are also key returners while Simeon Wilcher adds 8.6 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.6 assists while shooting 42.3% from beyond the three-point arc.
NC State vs. Texas pick, best bet
Both these teams should be overall encouraged by their start to the season, but I am backing NC State in this matchup. Texas does not have a major victory yet this year and will face a steep leap in competition compared to its previous victory in the consolation bracket Chaminade. If it is not laced up and ready to go from the opening tip, it will be a problem against NC State’s fast-paced attack.
The Wolfpack have more depth with six players averaging in double-figures. They gave up 85 points to Seton Hall in their lone loss, but the Wolfpack have limited opponents to 70 points or fewer in four of their five wins. Texas should have success controlling the boards, but NC State’s shooting has been really impressive and this feels much more due to the looks it has created than any sort of shooting luck.
Count on the Wolfpack getting out in transition often and having the Texas defense scrambling. NC State is capable enough on the defensive end to preserve a lead and I like its chances of getting out of the gates hot tonight. It has won the first half in seven of its last eight games and also picked up outright victories against six of its seven last non-conference opponents. In contrast, Texas has lost five of its last six games against ranked teams at a neutral venue.
Expect NC State’s offensive firepower to be too much to overcome and for the Wolfpack to cover the spread as 2.5-point favorites.
