A jam-packed slate of nine NBA games is set to get underway on Wednesday night, featuring plenty of stars taking the court across the league. Before you place any bets, here is one parlay you can tail as the games tip off.
Using DraftKings’ NBA Consistency Sheets, I built out a parlay of player props for Wednesday night’s action. The tool features players’ averages, win percentages, home-road splits and a brand-new matchup grade, all of which can be adjusted to account for different sample sizes and prop markets. Balancing each of those factors against each other, here’s a breakdown of all four legs featuring insights from the sheet:
Hornets G Collin Sexton
Pick: Colin Sexton O 12.5 points (-123)
Sexton is averaging 15.8 points per game this season, which immediately makes his 12.5-point line stand out as ripe for an over. Beyond that though, the speedy guard is facing a Knicks team that the Consistency Sheets have pegged as an A season matchup grade.
On a consistency basis, Sexton has been clearing 12.5 points regularly. He has gone over that mark in 80% of his last five games, 80% of his last 10 contests and 81% of his 16 total appearances this season. Sexton is fresh off scoring 18 points against a Clippers team with a C+ season matchup grade and 22 against a Hawks team with an F, so a more favorable opponent like New York could make his path to 13-plus points even cleaner.
Knicks G Jalen Brunson
Pick: Jalen Brunson O 2.5 three-pointers (-156)
On the other end of that same game, the Hornets are presenting Knicks guards with an A+ season matchup grade when it comes to hitting 3-pointers. Brunson is primed to take advantage of that, already averaging 2.9 triples a night.
Brunson has hit at least three 3-point field goals in 64% of his games this season and 70% of his last 10 games. Looking at the games in which he failed to reach that mark, they came against matchups graded D+, C-, B-, C and D. In his two games against matchups graded A- or better, Brunson hit five and six 3s, respectively. The Hornets are the most 3-point-friendly matchup for Brunson so far this year.
Grizzlies F Jaren Jackson Jr.
Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. U 21.5 points (-107)
Jackson is actually heading into a pretty favorable matchup with the Pelicans, who the Consistency Sheets have at an A- for opposing forwards’ scoring efforts. Don’t let that lure you into a false sense of security, though.
The stretch big is only averaging 17.8 points per game. The under on Jackson scoring 21.5 points has a 94% winning percentage this season. After scoring a season-high 26 points on November 15, Jackson proceeded to score 18, miss two games with a sprained right ankle, then score 16 in his return.
Pacers F Pascal Siakam
Pick: Pascal Siakam O 33.5 points + rebounds + assists (-111)
Looking past the narratives surrounding Siakam’s return to Toronto, the numbers are working in his favor heading into the homecoming as well. The Raptors’ season matchup grade is A+ in the points + rebounds + assists category, after all.
Siakam is averaging 36.6 PRA per game. He has a winning percentage of 69% on the season in terms of clearing 33.5, plus an 80% winning percentage over his last five. Of his five games this year facing an opponent with an A- matchup grade or better, Siakam has reached at least 34 PRA four times.
