NBA Cup action picks back up on Wednesday evening with nine games across the schedule. In the Eastern Conference’s Group C, the Milwaukee Bucks are 2-0 and seek to protect that record in a matchup with the 2-1 Miami Heat. The story looming over this game is Giannis Antetokounmpo’s health, but with or without the star, there’s betting value to find in this one.
Here’s a Bucks vs. Heat prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s matchup.
Bucks vs. Heat prediction, preview
Milwaukee Bucks
As mentioned above, Antetokounmpo is questionable to play today due to an adductor strain that’s left him sidelined for the last three games. If Milwaukee’s star suits up, he brings MVP-caliber production of 31.2 PPG, 10.8 REB and 6.8 AST as the alpha scorer and offensive engine who makes this team go. However, the Bucks are 0-3 in his absence and 0-4 including the game in which the Greek Freak suffered his injury, so results without him are far from encouraging. It doesn’t help that Kevin Porter Jr. remains sidelined, but there’s a young player emerging as a reliable option at guard in the meantime 
— Ryan Rollins averages 18.8 points and 6.0 assists this season with totals of 24, 32, 24, and 10 points without Antetokounmpo in the lineup. Kyle Kuzma, Myles Turner, Bobby Portis and A.J. Green are all reliable role players as well, but the outlook remains rough if there’s no clear star to take pressure off them. Overall, the Bucks rank 19th in PPG and 20th in OFFRTG as well as 21st in opponent scoring and 20th in DEFRTG. They fall 17th in pace with a NETRTG of -2.8, also good for 20th.
Miami Heat
The Heat are one of the biggest surprises in the Eastern Conference with a 12-6 record and the league’s highest-scoring offense despite the fact Tyler Herro missed the first month of the campaign and only just returned last game. The combo guard made an immediate impact with 24 points and clearly adds another dynamic option next to leading scorer Norman Powell, who averages 25.4 PPG but doesn’t provide similar playmaking chops. They form a fun backcourt pairing that’s complemented by Bam Adebayo’s 19.3 PPG and 8.2 REB, and there are a ton of productive role players here as well — Andrew Wiggins and Jaime Jaquez Jr. both post a smidge over 16 PPG, though both are questionable to play tonight along with Nikola Jovic and Dru Smith. Even if those guys don’t play though, Miami still stands a chance at 18th in opponent PPG and third in DEFRTG. The Heat are also first in pace (stunning, right?) and seventh in NETRTG at +5.6. They’re a good team that should only improve with Herro back in the lineup.
Bucks vs. Heat pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Heat are -8.5 favorites with -325 odds to win on the Moneyline. The game total is set at 237.5 with 61% of bets favoring the over and 82% of straight picks on Miami as well.
Looking at recent form, the Heat are 8-2 across their last 10 games and a dominant 8-1 when playing at home as they are tonight. The Bucks, however, are just 3-7 over the same stretch with a 3-4 record on the road.
If Antetokounmpo suits up, Milwaukee stands a chance. Few players create as much impact on the game as the multi-time MVP, and that’s been more evident than ever over this stretch without him. He covers up many of the faults in this roster, but the Bucks don’t have the surrounding talent to survive without him for very long. On the other side of the matchup, the return of Herro brings even more offensive firepower to the picture for a unit that’s already one of the NBA’s best, and his presence only adds another threat for defenses to deal with. With the All-Star back on the court, opponents can’t pressure Powell or other teammates as much, so there’s a whole new element to this rejuvenated attack that pushes the tempo and puts up plenty of shots.
If Giannis plays, I like Bucks +8.5. However, missing this game would all but ensure a Heat victory tonight, so I’m firmly on Miami -8.5 if the Greek Freak can’t go. Keep an eye on his status throughout the afternoon.
Top pick: MIA Heat -8.5 (-110)
