Thanksgiving football might just be the best part of the holiday, and with the slate of games the NFL cooked up this year, we’re in for a real treat on Thursday. In the afternoon window, two teams fresh off the heels of major upset victories duke it out in Dallas as the Cowboys and Chiefs go head-to-head. With elite quarterbacks and high-flying offenses on the menu, this is a game that’s worth missing your traditional afternoon nap for.
Read on for a Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Week 13 duel.
Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction, preview
Kansas City Chiefs
Reports of the Chiefs’ demise may have been greatly exaggerated. The last few weeks held talk that Patrick Mahomes and Co. couldn’t make the playoffs or compete for another Super Bowl, but an upset in overtime over the AFC power Indianapolis Colts showed that this team still has some fight left in it. Kansas City trailed throughout the entire game but scored 14 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and overtime to secure the win, including a desperation drive to tie the game in the final minutes of regulation.
The Chiefs’ offense sits ninth in scoring with 25.2 PPG as well as fifth in average yards per game with 376.0, largely due to a pass-happy attack that’s second in passing yards per contest. Mahomes can produce some massive weeks with weapons like Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy, and the offense has quietly avoided turnovers with the third-fewest giveaways per game.
Defensively, Steve Spagnuolo’s unit ranks fourth in opponent PPG (18.3) and sixth in opponent yardage (293.0) as well as 10th in red-zone scoring percentage. The Chiefs border on a top-10 ranking against both the run and the pass in terms of yards allowed, certainly a positive. However, they don’t create a surplus of splash plays at 18th in sack percentage (6.47%) and 27th in takeaways per game (0.8). Those may be what’s missing compared to the truly elite defenses here in the past.
Dallas Cowboys
On a similar note to Kansas City, the Cowboys’ doubters were silenced in Week 12 as Dallas defeated the NFC-leading Philadelphia Eagles with a comeback of its own. Despite trailing 21-0 in the second quarter, Dak Prescott led his team to 24 unanswered points to win on a last-second field goal in the game’s final frame. It was a very impressive showing for a team in desperate need of a win to keep the season alive with an outside chance of making the postseason.
The Cowboys ride one of the NFL’s most fearsome offenses with 29.1 PPG (fourth-best) along with an average of 387.3 yards (league-leaders). They convert third downs at the sixth-best rate and air the ball out frequently with an elite wideout duo of George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb, the former of whom became just the second player to reach 1,000 receiving yards on the season with another standout performance over the weekend. Dallas leads the league with 266.8 passing yards per game, but Javonte Williams remains fifth in rushing yards as well.
This defense received much criticism as one of the NFL’s worst units heading into the bye week, but the results in a limited sample since then show signs of improvement. The Cowboys are still 31st in opponent PPG (28.5) and 29th in yards allowed per game (377.5) —however, they held the Eagles to just 21 points and a scoreless second half with 339 total yards, and limited the Raiders to 16 points and 236 yards in the prior week. Better health and trade acquisition Quinnen Williams have boosted the outlook, though the team still falls 21st in sack percentage and forces just 0.9 takeaways per game.
Chiefs vs. Cowboys pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chiefs are 3.5-point road favorites with -180 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Cowboys are listed at +150 to win outright with a high game total of 52.5 points.
Both teams enter this game with some significant momentum after taking down two of the top contenders in their respective conferences, so bettors should expect plenty of energy as Dallas and Kansas City try and stay alive in the playoff race. That’s only likely to be exacerbated by the national stage on the holiday, so hopefully these sides can meet the moment.
The Cowboys did shock the world this past weekend with the win over Philly, and while I took them to cover at +3.5 in that one, there’s some context to note. That Eagles offense has been known to stall out this season and struggle to move the ball, especially in the second half of games. Questionable play calling isn’t a luxury Dallas has against a much more consistent Chiefs team that is more willing to push the tempo via the passing game, so the Cowboys’ secondary must show up at peak performance here. While the defense showed signs of improvement over the last two weeks, whether that’s a legitimate trend or just a one-off will be truly tested in this game. Likewise though, the Kansas City defense will also be tested against what feels like an air raid approach from the Cowboys.
At the end of the day, it’s much easier to trust the Chiefs straight up on Thursday given the franchise’s pedigree and the fact we’ve seen the defense perform well throughout much of the season. However, there’s a legitimate case that Dallas can at least keep up on the scoreboard and keep this competitive even if the defense regresses to the mean, so I’m comfortable taking the Cowboys at +3.5 for the second straight week.
