On the Western Conference side of the NBA Cup group stages, the Houston Rockets head to the Bay Area for a meeting with the Golden State Warriors tonight. These teams just matched up in the first round of the playoffs, and while Houston took its opponent to seven games, the Dubs were ultimately more battle-tested and prevailed in the end. With a little added drama thanks to that history, tonight’s contest in Group C should prove quite fun as these contenders line up across the court from each other.
Here’s a Timberwolves vs. Thunder prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s matchup.
Rockets vs. Warriors prediction, preview
Both of these teams are postseason competitors, but one side appears much more dominant than the other through the first quarter-ish of the campaign. The Rockets are 11-4 with eight wins across their last 10 games, thriving with one of the league’s elite offenses and an imposing defense. Houston’s second in scoring, third in opponent points allowed and possesses the NBA’s second-best NETRTG at +11.3. The absence of Kevin Durant as he tends to a personal matter leaves the team without its leading scorer, but Alperen Sengun is playing at an All-NBA level with 22.4 points, 9.7 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game. Amen Thompson averages 17.9 PPG while playing elite defense, and Reed Sheppard has emerged as a standout option with 16.0 PPG on 46.2% shooting from three-point range over his last six games.
The Warriors are 10-9 and weathered the storm of a few games without Steph Curry in the lineup, who’s in the midst of a resurgence with 28.8 PPG on a league-high 12.2 three-point attempts per contest. Jimmy Butler has excelled alongside the guard with 19.9 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.9 assists per outing, and a handful of young role players like Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody and Brandin Podziemski also play key roles. However, Kuminga is still out with a knee issue tonight, as is Al Horford due to a sciatic nerve problem. Golden State’s defense is quite good at 13th in opponent points allowed and 11th in DEFRTG, though the offense lags behind at 21st in scoring and 22nd in OFFRTG. The team’s NETRTG of +0.8 sits 16th though, so the Warriors aren’t exactly the dominant force we’ve seen in the past.
Rockets vs. Warriors pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Warriors as -2.5 favorites at home tonight with -148 odds on the Moneyline. The Rockets are listed as +124 underdogs to win outright with the game total set at 224.5. As for betting splits, 59% of straight wagers favor Golden State while 86% are on the over.
This playoff rematch should be very fun, though it’s a slight letdown without Durant in the lineup. Still, Houston made it work in the last game with a 114-92 road win over the Suns in the star’s absence the other day — while Sengun logged a stat line of just 18/5/5 in that one, Thompson scored 28 points while Aaron Holiday and Jabari Smith Jr. stepped up with 22 and 17 points of their own. The Rockets are a deep team even with Tari Eason sidelined for the next few weeks, and they’re much better on the offensive glass than the Warriors as well. Crashing the boards to create second-chance points is the entire crux of this Houston offense, and that’s even more crucial without the sharpshooting Durant.
Curry and Butler are a formidable duo, but with Golden State missing its third-leading scorer in Kuminga and an important big man in Horford, that team’s shorthanded as well. The Rockets tend to scrap out gritty wins, and tonight should be no exception. It’s a little safer to take them to cover, but a straight Moneyline pick provides some additional juice too.
Top pick: HOU Rockets +2.5 (-108)
