NFL fans can rejoice, because in just 14 and a half hours, the first games of the league’s three-game Thanksgiving slate will begin with a matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions. In this article, though, I’m focusing on the second game, which kicks off at 4:30 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Tex. between the Dallas Cowboys and the Kansas City Chiefs.
In that late-afternoon clash, DraftKings Sportsbook favors the Chiefs by 3.5 points, with the point total set to 52.5. Kansas City is -185 on the Moneyline, and Dallas is +154.
DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for each of the Thanksgiving matchups, so I’ll take you through my two captain’s picks, two FLEX picks, and one fade for Chiefs-Cowboys. Let’s dive in:
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $500K Second Helping Showdown [$100K to 1st] (KC @ DAL).
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Rashee Rice ($15,000 CP) – I picked Rice as one of my top contenders for the King of the End Zone promotion, so it’s no surprise that I’ll back him again here. The 25-year-old has quickly usurped Xavier Worthy ($9,900 CP) as Kansas City’s top receiving option after missing the first six games of the season due to a suspension, and he’s notched at least 18 FPTS in four of his five games, with the lone exception coming against one of the league’s best secondaries in the Denver Broncos. He leads the Chiefs in target share and leads all the team’s wide receivers in catch rate. He’s also generated separation at an above-average rate league-wide.
Rice has an excellent matchup against a Dallas defense that has been one of the league’s worst, allowing the second-most FPTS per game to wide receivers. The Cowboys have allowed the sixth-most yards to wideouts, as well as three more touchdowns than any other team, and in part because they’ve missed the 10th-most tackles, opposing receivers have been extremely efficient, gaining the third-most yards per attempt. Dallas is also experiencing some turmoil in the secondary, with safeties Donovan Wilson and Malik Hooker and cornerback Caelen Carson all limited at points this week in practice.
Javonte Williams ($12,600 CP) – While it was widely expected before the season that the Cowboys would address their running back depth, their marquee running back signing was Williams, a veteran who had spent the last four seasons with the Denver Broncos. He immediately proved to be a worthwhile investment in his first two games of the season, combining for 151 yards and three scores (45.4 FPTS) across those two games, and while he’s slowed down his torrid pace slightly, he’s still been solid, rushing for 83 or more yards in each of his last three weeks. By Pro Football Focus’ grades, Williams has been the league’s 18th-best qualified back this season.
On paper, Kansas City is a tough matchup, given that it has conceded the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, and across his four-year stint with the Broncos, Williams never had a good game against the Chiefs. But on a per-play basis, Kansas City is far more gettable, merely ranking 19th in expected points added on rushing plays, 18th in yards per attempt allowed, 15th in touchdowns, and 12th by PFF’s run defense grades. Williams has the fourth-highest red zone rushing share in the league, and the Chiefs have allowed red zone conversions at merely the 10th-lowest rate. If Williams crosses the 20-carry threshold like he has in each of his past two games, I like his chances of making an impact.
FLEX Plays
George Pickens ($9,600) – Rolling with Rice or one of the quarterbacks as captain and then still drafting Pickens eats up a pretty large proportion of the budget, but it’s hard to understate just how incredible the 24-year-old has been this season. He’s already accumulated 1,054 yards — which trails only Jaxon Smith-Njigba league-wide — and he trails only Kayshon Boutte and Puka Nacua in success rate. Since Dallas’ bye, he’s turned it up yet another level, putting up 18 catches on 20 targets, 290 yards, and two scores (32.5 FPTS per game). Dak Prescott ($10,400), who passed Tony Romo last week to become the Cowboys’ career passing yards leader, is among the best quarterbacks to accentuate Pickens’ strengths, given that he has a deeper route tree and Prescott is one of the better intermediate- and deep-ball passers in football.
Kansas City isn’t the easiest matchup for Pickens, given that it has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, but the Chiefs don’t fare well by all metrics, as they’ve allowed the third-highest completion percentage, defended the fourth-fewest passes, and conceded the 14th-highest passer rating. They’ve done a great job forcing the shortest average depth of target, but they’ve allowed the ninth-most yards after the catch, and Pickens has been the league’s third-best receiver at generating yards after the catch relative to expectations. Plus, they don’t get much pressure, which should allow his deeper route tree to develop.
Kareem Hunt ($7,400) – Since re-joining Kansas City prior to the 2024 season, the veteran has re-established himself as the Chiefs’ number one running back, and he’s peaking at the right time, having recorded double-digit FPTS in each of his past four games. Kansas City leaned heavily into the run last weekend in an overtime win over the Indianapolis Colts, and Hunt responded by turning his 30 carries into 104 yards and a score (24 FPTS), his first time hitting the century mark since Week 2 last season. Despite his advanced age (30), Hunt has still been the league’s 14th-best running back at generating yards per attempt relative to expectations, performing far better than his teammate Isiah Pacheco ($6,400), who ranks 10th-to-last in the same stat.
Dallas has done a slightly better job against opposing running backs than opposing wide receivers, but giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game isn’t exactly ideal. Other advanced stats rank the Cowboys even less kindly; they’ve been worth the fourth-fewest expected points added on running plays and have the second-worst run defense by PFF’s grades. Running backs have also done lots of damage in the passing game, in part because Dallas generates pressure at the highest rate and incentivizes opposing quarterbacks to dump it off, and while Hunt has never been a huge factor as a receiver, he has at least two targets in each of his past three games.
Fades
Jake Ferguson ($7,200) – While the Cowboys tight end got off to a hot start this season, recording 16 or more FPTS in five of his first seven games and scoring six touchdowns in a four-week span, Prescott has weaned off of him in recent weeks, and he’s topped out at 11.6 FPTS in his last four games. With Pickens and CeeDee Lamb ($9,400) both in excellent form and Williams continuing to be effective, there’s a lot of mouths to feed on Dallas’ offense, and Ferguson couldbe the odd man out.
Last season, I would have suggested playing Ferguson, given that the Chiefs allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends in 2024, but they’ve tightened it up a lot this season, conceding the ninth-fewest so far. In large part, that can be tied to the leap that free safety Bryan Cook has made, as he’s been the eighth-best coverage safety in the league. His secondary partner, Christian Roland-Wallace, has nearly as good of a coverage grade on a small sample size. Ferguson might be able to do some damage against Chamarri Conner, but otherwise, Kansas City’s secondary is too strong for me to play a third receiving option.
THE OUTCOME
The Chiefs are in real danger of missing the playoffs, and their nine-season division-winning streak is almost certain to come to an end. Patrick Mahomes ($10,600) has had one of the worst seasons of his Hall of Fame career, and Travis Kelce ($7,000) has mostly looked like a man ready to retire and enjoy his marriage to Taylor Swift. Meanwhile, Dallas’ offense is one of the league’s best, and Prescott leads the league in QBR.
Still, as uninspiring as Kansas City has looked at times this season, it still put up 23 points and 494 total yards of offense against one of the league’s best teams in Indianapolis, claiming its first one-score win of the season, and the only truly bad unit for either team is the Cowboys’ defense, which has been utterly impotent against both the run and the pass. Prescott will keep Dallas in the game, but his defense will let him down again.
