Many of the season stats for Cincinnati, at least on offense, aren’t a true reflection of the current Bengals, so I’m not going to bother digging into the EPA per dropback and carry. That’s because Joe Burrow only played two games due to injury. Jake Browning started four games while Joe Flacco got the nod for six contests. Burrow is back for this one, but wide receiver Tee Higgins is out. In addition, it’s likely that it will take Burrow some time to get back up to speed — or maybe not. There are just so many unknowns on the offensive end for Cincinnati.
The defense is another story. Things are very cut and dry there, as the Bengals’ defense is one of the worst in the league. Their rush defense has allowed 12 touchdowns and a whopping 5.1 yards per carry while posting the third-highest EPA per carry. Their pass defense has allowed the highest EPA per dropback and the most touchdowns at 26, while securing just 15 sacks.
Now the Bengals defense has to face a red-hot Baltimore Ravens team that has won five straight, while still getting their bearings back on offense. Lamar Jackson has started the last four games after missing three weeks. Jackson has eclipsed 200 passing yards only once in those four contests, and he hasn’t surpassed 50 rushing yards or scored on the ground since Week 1.
Derrick Henry hasn’t been great this season, finishing under 100 yards seven times. He has surpassed 100 yards four times, with three multi-touchdown games. After scoring 33.2 FPTS in the season opener, Henry put up fewer than 20 FPTS in his next eight contests, with three of those ending in single digits. Over the last two games, though, Henry has put up over 22 FPTS in each contest.
On defense, Baltimore has allowed 4.4 yards per carry and 11 rushing touchdowns. Their EPA per carry is 13th-best in the league. Their pass defense has posted the 13th-highest EPA per dropback with 16 touchdowns. The unit has racked up seven interceptions but only 18 sacks. The completion percentage allowed is 63.1.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Baltimore favored by 7 points at home, with the total set at 51.5 points.
Weird things tend to happen on Thursdays, so expect the unexpected for this Thanksgiving Day matchup.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M Thanksgiving Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (CIN @ BAL)
Captain’s Picks
Mark Andrews ($8,400 CP): I have mixed feelings about this selection. On one hand, Andrews is only playing 67% of the snaps, while Isaiah Likely is at 57%. In addition, both players have essentially seen the same number of targets as of late. On the other hand, Likely has exceeded 4 FPTS just once this season, while Andrews has put up double-digit FPTS four times with a season-high of 27.1 FPTS. The Bengals have allowed the most FPTS on average to tight ends, and their 13 touchdowns surrendered are the most given up by a significant margin.
UTIL Plays
Isaiah Likely ($2,600): The Bengals are the creme de la creme matchup for tight ends. There’s a chance both Andrews and Likely score in this one, especially if Joe Burrow is able to quickly recapture his dominance and light up the scoreboard.
Ja’Marr Chase ($11,000): Chase leads the NFL in targets despite missing a game. Now, much of the love came from Joe Flacco, but it’s highly likely that Chase gets peppered with targets since Tee Higgins is out for this one. And Chase has had some monster games against Baltimore in the past.
Derrick Henry ($10,600): The Ravens will more than likely score points — through the air and on the ground. The Bengals have one of the worst rush defenses in the league, so one plus one equals two in Henry’s case.
Fades
Zay Flowers ($9,200): Flowers has been pretty consistent this season, finishing with double-digit FPTS in all but two games, but he’s exceeded 20 FPTS only once, and that was in Week 1 when he put up 31.1 FPTS. The obvious weakness and path of least resistance for Baltimore is to play through its tight ends.
THE OUTCOME
There is a lot of uncertainty for this one because we have no idea where Joe Burrow is at play-wise. If he’s fully back, then this could be fantasy nirvana. If not, then it’s blowout city because the Ravens are going to be putting up points in this one. It’s just a matter of how and how many.
Final Score: Ravens 44, Bengals 34
