Finally, our first big departure of the MLB offseason. The Toronto Blue Jays were as close as you could get to a World Series title without winning. Now, they’re retooling for another run at the title next season, adding one of the top free agent pitchers. Dylan Cease is heading north on a seven-year, $210 million deal, first reported by the New York Post’s Jon Heyman.
The sticker shock is real for a pitcher who has never won an award or made an All-Star game. Cease does have two top-four Cy Young finishes on his resume, but it sounds like a lot. Once you get past the initial shock, the deal makes a lot of sense for Toronto.
In an era when pitchers seem made of glass, Cease is remarkably durable. The 29-year-old has made at least 32 starts in each of the past five seasons, throwing at least 165 innings in each. Length out of the starting rotation was a problem for the Jays last season, and they constantly had to reshuffle the rotation due to injuries and ineffectiveness. Cease addresses all of those issues.
The recent year from Cease also gives some pause. $210 million to a pitcher with a 4.55 ERA? It seems wild. But his peripheral numbers have always been strong. Based on his expected ERA, Cease was extremely unlucky last season. A high strikeout pitcher with a good defense behind him will produce strong results more often than not.
We have to adjust to the fact that this is what a great No. 2 starter will get paid these days. Max Fried got similar money from the New York Yankees last season and produced excellent results, as did Carlos Rodon. Cease is durable and productive, with the upside to shove like a No. 1 starter. Plus, as Ken Rosenthal reports, the deal includes deferred money that helps keep Toronto flexible.
A Toronto rotation built around Cease, Kevin Gausman, and burgeoning rookie Trey Yesavage sounds awfully dangerous. It’s a great deal for all, and will boost their chances at contending for that elusive World Series.
