This season, Thanksgiving night in Baltimore feels less like a holiday and more like a reckoning. The Ravens clawed back from one and five to six and five, winning with defense and Derrick Henry instead of weekly Lamar heroics. Cincinnati staggers in at three and eight, four straight losses, dragging what might be the league’s worst defense into a rivalry spot. Joe Burrow returns early from turf toe to rescue a season that already feels half written in ink. Under the lights, this looks like a measuring stick for where both franchises actually stand after last January. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 13’s Thanksgiving game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Bengals vs. Ravens prediction, preview
The numbers say Baltimore controls the honest parts of this matchup. Their defense allows 0.010 EPA per play with a 43.9% success rate, while Cincinnati bleeds 0.187 EPA and 50.1% success. That is a massive gulf in down-to-down competence. Offensively, neither side is dazzling by EPA, but the Ravens sit around neutral at 0.000 while the Bengals live at -0.055. Baltimore creates more explosives in both phases, with 95 total big plays to Cincinnati’s 85, and they do it with better balance. Henry brings 871 rushing yards and nine touchdowns into a front already leaking run efficiency. Lamar Jackson sits on 1,595 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, three interceptions, plus 237 rushing yards, even while clearly banged up. The turnover sheet leans Baltimore too: plus two overall against the Bengals’ minus seven, driven by twelve Cincinnati interceptions and just one fumble recovery all season.
The Bengals’ best argument lives in the red zone and the helmets involved. Their offense cashes 62.1% of red-zone trips into touchdowns, comfortably ahead of Baltimore’s 47.6% clip. Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are simply a higher-level pitch-and-catch pairing than anything Pittsburgh or Minnesota has rolled at this defense during the Ravens’ win streak. Cincinnati actually matches Baltimore’s success rate on offense, living at 43.5%, and gets more out of its ground game by rush EPA. The recent scoreboard says they can hang too, averaging 28 points over the last four even while losing every game. You can sketch the upset path: Burrow’s timing survives the toe, Chase punishes Cover Three and Cover One, and that red-zone efficiency punishes any Ravens field-goal drift.
Ravens vs. Bengals pick, best bet
I still think that case undersells how brutal this Bengals defense has been, and how many paths Baltimore has to real separation. Cincinnati lets opponents convert 48.6% on third down, and now faces a Ravens offense at 38.2% that wants to play ahead of the chains with Henry. That same defense owns the league’s worst EPA profile, while Baltimore’s defense holds opponents near league-average efficiency and has given up only about 13 points per game during the five-game heater. The turnover gap is real; seventeen Bengals giveaways against just ten takeaways make it hard for underdogs to finish comebacks. Scheme-wise, Baltimore can lean into the coverage weaknesses your data flags, with Bengals Cover Two and Cover Four both hemorrhaging EPA. I make this feel closer to Ravens minus nine than minus seven. I’m laying the touchdown with Baltimore, with any over 51.5 exposure staying smaller and more speculative.
I expect Baltimore to lean hard into eleven and twelve personnel, using Andrews and Zay Flowers to occupy safeties while Henry batters nickel boxes. Monken should call a steady diet of duo, counter, and wide zone, forcing those linebackers to fit gap after gap. On defense, Zach Orr can mix his 61% zone base with timely Cover One pressures, trusting his corners and Kyle Hamilton to squeeze vertical windows while blitzes force Burrow off his spot. Cincinnati will try to answer with quick game to Chase and Noah Fant, plus wide runs for Chase Brown, hoping to keep Burrow out of third and long. The problem is that every stalled drive exposes that 0.187 EPA defense to another Henry march. Over four quarters, I see Baltimore’s depth and physicality wearing down a thin Bengals front.
My card lands on Ravens 31, Bengals 20, with the side carrying most of the load and Henry grinding us over his rushing number.
Best bet: Ravens -7 (-110) vs. Bengals
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For a prop lean, I’m on Derrick Henry’s workload. Safest way to hit this market, I think than counting on Burrow’s volume to chase an over. Derrick Henry over 92.5 rushing yards at -110, playable to about -120, fits how this should unfold. He averages 79.2 rushing yards per game at 4.7 per carry, but Baltimore’s pivot into a run-first identity has him north of 90 in recent weeks. Cincinnati has surrendered the second-most rushing yards per game and around 1.1 rushing touchdowns per game to running backs, getting bullied between the tackles all season. Their zone-heavy structure and light blitz rate invite Baltimore to stay patient on the ground rather than chase explosives through shaky weather and Burrow’s narrative. If I already like Ravens -7, I’m comfortable letting Henry hammer a soft front for triple-digit yardage.
Best prop lean: Derrick Henry o92.5 total rushing yards (-110)
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