The No. 18 UCLA Bruins (5-1) and California Golden Bears (5-1) are set to face off Tuesday night, going head-to-head in San Francisco. The former Pac-12 foes will tip things off at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Bruins are 8.5-point favorites in the matchup with -380 moneyline odds, and the total has been set at 145.5 points. Here is a preview of the primetime Chase Center showdown featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
UCLA at California Preview
UCLA Preview
After winning a hard-fought exhibition against San Diego State, the Bruins came out of the gates with a dud, only beating Eastern Washington 80-74. UCLA took marginal steps forward with an 11-point win over Pepperdine and a 21-point victory against West Georgia, only to fall short and lose 69-65 to Arizona at the Inuit Dome. The Bruins eventually got back in the win column, beating Sacramento State 79-48 and Presbyterian 86-46.
Tyler Bilodeau, UCLA’s leading scorer at 14.8 points per game, is out for the next week or two due to a knee sprain he suffered in practice. Five other Bruins are averaging double-digit points per game – New Mexico transfer Donovan Dent and Michigan State transfer Xavier Booker, plus Eric Dailey Jr., Skyy Clark and Trent Perry. As for Kansas City transfer Jamar Brown, San Diego transfer Steven Jamerson II and veteran wing Brandon Williams, they have each proven their worth on defense. Dent, despite posting .440/.111/.615 shooting splits, is at least averaging 6.6 assists and 1.4 turnovers per game. Booker and Dailey, meanwhile, are each averaging more than 5.0 rebounds per game and shooting above 44.4% from deep – the latter of which also applies to Clark.
On a per-game basis, UCLA’s scoring defense ranks No. 11 in the country. The Bruins’ 49.4% field-goal percentage and 39.3% field-goal percentage against are good for No. 58 and No. 69, respectively.
UCLA comes in at No. 21 in the latest KenPom ratings. Unsurprisingly, Mick Cronin’s Bruins have the No. 13 adjusted defensive rating in the country. Their offense comes in at No. 55. Cronin also runs things at a glacial pace, with UCLA’s 66.9 possessions per 40 minutes ranking bottom-30 nationally.
California Preview
The Golden Bears opened up the season with a trio of low-major opponents, first taking care of business against Cal State, Bakersfield. Their 77-67 win over Wright State was less convincing, but beating Cal State, Fullerton 93-65 got the train back on its tracks. Even when Cal lost to Kansas State in a true road game, the 99-96 result was far from the worst-case scenario.
Virginia transfer Dai Dai Ames has thrived in his new digs, averaging 18.8 points per game on 57.8% shooting from two and 53.1% from three. He only dropped 16 and seven in his last two games, though, shooting 3-for-11 from deep across that short span. Luckily for the Golden Bears, they have four other players averaging double-figures. Syracuse transfer Chris Bell is putting up 15.7 points a night, just ahead of Delaware transfer John Camden and his 14.8 points per game. Then there’s Michigan transfer guard Justin Pippen and big man Lee Dort, who are averaging 12.8 points and 5.0 rebounds and 10.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, respectively.
The Golden Bears aren’t remarkable or dreadful in any major statistical category, with their 61st-ranked 49.2% field-goal percentage and 83rd-ranked 39.9% field-goal percentage against standing out the most. On the other hand, Cal is getting outrebounded 12.3 to 10.7 on the offensive glass on a per game basis, neither of which are particularly flattering numbers.
Cal has the No. 73 offense and No. 91 defense in the updated KenPom ratings. Overall, the Golden Bears rank No. 81 in adjusted efficiency margin.
UCLA at California Pick, Best Bet
While looking at a common opponent may be a bit of an unfair crutch, it is valuable data that isn’t always available for these early-season nonconference matchups. Cal beat Presbyterian by 10 points in Berkeley. UCLA beat Presbyterian by 40 points in Westwood.
The transitive property can’t be used in a vacuum, but additional data suggests that the Bruins could pull out a double-digit victory on Tuesday night. UCLA will be the toughest defense Cal has faced this season, all while its offense isn’t too far off from the Kansas State unit that nearly dropped triple-digits on the Golden Bears two weeks ago. The Bruins just held a top-10 offense in Arizona to fewer than 70 points. Bilodeau’s injury will probably limit UCLA’s offense, but his absence will only make its defense stronger.
The Golden Bears did give the Bruins some trouble in coach Mark Madsen’s first season at the helm, winning by nine and losing by one in 2023-24, but that was a freshman-led UCLA team that is not representative of the rest of Mick Cronin’s tenure. UCLA beat Cal in the previous 11 matchups, boasting a 15.5-point average margin of victory along the way.
