College basketball is in full swing with Feast Week underway and plenty of the top programs facing off. One of the premier matchups will be between the Tennessee Volunteers and Houston Cougars as part of the Tuesday slate. Tennessee fell short to Houston in last year’s Elite 8, but both programs have retooled and have their eyes on a National Championship run.
Looking at the odds, Houston enters as a 2.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 134.5 points.
Houston vs. Tennessee prediction, preview
Note: Houston had yet to play Syracuse at the time of this writing.
Houston enters this matchup ranked third in the AP Poll and second in the coaches poll. They are off to a 5-0 start to the season with victories over Lehigh, Towson, Oakland, Auburn, and Rider. They are 2-3 against the spread, and the under has cashed in three of their five games thus far.
Kelvin Sampson’s squad has already showcased their high-level defense as their expected identity. Houston returned 44.2% of the minutes played and 42.3% of their scoring production from last year’s team, which fell just short in the National Championship game last year. They are holding opponents to 53.4 points per game, which is the second-best rate in college basketball. The Cougars also rank 12th in opponent field goal percentage and 15th in opponent three-point percentage. Offensively, they are scoring 76.4 points per game, which ranks 220th.
Kingston Flemings headlines the offensive production with 17.4 points and 5.2 assists while shooting 50.0% from long range. Emanuel Sharp is a tone-setter on both sides of the ball with 16.0 points per game and 3.8 assists, leading the team with 7.0 three-point attempts per game and connecting at a 37.1% rate. Chris Cenac Jr. is the lone other player averaging in double figures with 11.0 points per game and 7.4 rebounds, while Joseph Tugler leads the Big 12 with 2.8 blocks per game, along with 9.2 points and 5.8 rebounds.
Tennessee enters with a 6-0 record and is ranked 17th in the AP Poll, as well as 16th in the coaches poll. Rick Barnes’ squad has taken down Mercer, Northern Kentucky, North Florida, Rice, Tennessee State, and Rutgers already this year. The Volunteers are 2-4 against the spread, and the over has cashed in four of their six games so far this season.
Tennessee has a more balanced approach, but has also impressed defensively. They are holding opponents to 61.8 points per game, which ranks 19th in the country, and rank seventh in opponent field goal percentage, 24th in opponent three-point percentage, and pull in the fourth most rebounds per contest. Offensively, the Volunteers are scoring 90.0 points per contest, which ranks 45th in the country, and rank 41st in field goal percentage while tallying the third-most assists per game.
Star freshman Nate Ament headlines the production at 18.8 points and 8.4 rebounds per contest. Maryland transfer Ja’Kobi Gillespie adds 16.6 points and 6.0 assists, while J.P. Estrella is the lone other player to average in double figures with 14.0 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. Tennessee returned just 22.5% of the minutes played last year and 17.0% of the scoring production, but the new faces have been impressive in the early stages of the season.
Houston vs. Tennessee pick, best bet
Both these teams should be viewed in the upper echelon of college basketball programs and have far larger goals than they can accomplish at this stage of the season. While my lean would be Houston getting the victory and covering the spread, I am backing the under of 134.5 in this matchup.
This is a low total, but for good reason. Houston’s defense has a way of completely swallowing up opponents and making it feel like they have 10 guys on the floor. In past seasons, it has taken some time for this characteristic to stick, but the Cougars have this identity right out of the gates this year. While Auburn put up 72 points against them, all four other opponents were held to 57 points or fewer. For what it is worth, Auburn has also scored 93+ in their other four games, including 112 in their most recent victory over Jackson State.
Tennessee is not quite the offensive engine that Auburn is, and will be more willing to dig in for a defensive battle. The Volunteers have not allowed more than 66 points in any of their six games this season. Houston ranks 321st in possessions per game, while Tennessee is 113th. These are two of the best rebounding teams in the country, and expect this to be a slow-paced defensive battle throughout.
In addition, this will be the second night of a back-to-back for both sides, and the first signs of fatigue should be setting in on the season. These two rosters are different, but the score finished 69-50 (119 total) in last year’s NCAA Tournament matchup between these two teams. Expect a bit of a playoff-like atmosphere in Las Vegas as both sides look to make a statement.
Count on Houston’s defense imposing itself and for points to be difficult to come by on both sides of the ball. The first team to score 60 should have a clear pathway to a win, and I am backing the game total to stay under the 134.5 total.
