The group stage of the Emirates NBA Cup will wrap up this week, with games played tonight, tomorrow, and Friday counting towards the standings. Group winners and one Wild Card from each conference will then enter a knockout bracket culminating with the championship on December 16.
While neither the Orlando Magic nor the Philadelphia 76ers can clinch the group with a win, the 76ers can be eliminated with a loss and the Magic would likely go through as a Wild Card team, given that they’d be 3-0 entering a winner-take-all finale against the Detroit Pistons on Friday. The pivotal clash will begin tonight at 8 p.m. ET in Philadelphia.
Orlando is a 3.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-162 on the Moneyline), with the point total set at 228.5. The 76ers are +136 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll lay out my three favorite prop bets for tonight’s contest.
Franz Wagner 36+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (-111)
As has been the case throughout his entire career, it’s been no Paolo Banchero, no problem for the Magic. Wagner has thrived in his co-star’s latest absence, as in the seven games that Banchero has missed while dealing with a groin strain — including the November 12 game in which he left after just 12 minutes with the injury — Wagner has averaged 24.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game, topping 36 P/R/A four times. He also averaged 26.1 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game last season across a 20-game span in which Banchero was out with an oblique strain before suffering the same injury himself.
Philadelphia is quite short-handed today, with Adem Bona (ankle), VJ Edgecombe (calf), Joel Embiid (knee), Paul George (ankle), and Kelly Oubre Jr. (knee) all out, though the 76ers have been without some of those players for much of the season. All the absences should have an effect on Philadelphia’s defense: in George’s 66 minutes, opponents have been seven points per 100 possessions worse offensively while dishing out fewer assists, and in a much larger sample size last season, he had a similarly positive impact on the defense. Edgecombe, too, has been a solid defender in his rookie season, and Bona’s block percentage would lead the league if he’d played enough minutes to qualify.
Trendon Watford 5+ Rebounds (+102)
This is the first time this season that the 76ers have had this precise combination of injuries, so it’s difficult to predict exactly what their starting lineup will look like, but Watford is definitely a candidate for a bigger role. He’s started four games this season with only George absent, but in one of them, he had a 20-point, 17-rebound, 10-assist performance against the Toronto Raptors for his first career triple-double. He also played 26 minutes in Sunday’s defeat against the Miami Heat in Edgecombe’s absence, managing 19 points, nine boards, and seven assists, marking his second consecutive game in which he’s grabbed six or more boards.
Because Orlando’s defense is elite — in the seven games without Banchero, it has allowed the sixth-fewest rebounds per game — this is more of a minutes play than anything else. He’s snagged five or more boards in 33 of the 50 games in which he’s played 25 or more minutes in his career, and given Philadelphia’s lack of depth in the front court, it’s hard not to see him playing 25 minutes tonight. Andre Drummond also defers his boards more frequently than Embiid does, so he could box out and allow Watford to snag it and start the break. Plus, there’s an element of luck to the Magic’s success on the boards: their boards have been contested at a below-average rate, so some regression of fortune could result in more Watford rebounds.
Desmond Bane U0.5 Steals (+121)
Bane has experienced a slow start to his Orlando tenure after arriving in a blockbuster offseason deal, and though he’s turned it on somewhat offensively over the last two weeks, he’s averaging career lows in steal percentage, defensive box plus/minus, and defensive rating, and the Magic have been ever-so-slightly better defensively with him off the floor. To be fair, he’s nabbed at least one steal in four of his last five games, but two of them came against some sloppy ball-handling units in the LA Clippers and the Golden State Warriors.
Even with all the uncertainty in their lineup, the 76ers have been good about taking care of the ball. This season, they’ve conceded the eighth-fewest steals per game, and three of their absent players — Embiid, George, and Bona — rank in their top six in turnover percentage among the 15 players who have averaged 10 or more minutes per game, so they could be even more careful with the ball tonight. Bane will also spend plenty of time guarding Tyrese Maxey, whose 7.6% turnover ratio is the seventh-lowest among the 27 players averaging 34 or more minutes per game.
