The Lakers are hosting the Clippers on Tuesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Lakers are favored by 6.5 points and this game carries a total of 229.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Lakers vs. Clippers preview, prediction
The Lakers sit at a great 12-4 this season, but it hasn’t been as pretty as their record suggests, as the team ranks just 15th in net rating and their average margin of victory is just 2.6 PPG. Of the 12 teams that have won double-digit games, the Lakers rank second-to-last in net rating. The club has been great in competitive tilts, with a 6-0 record and ranking third in net rating in clutch situations, which is when the score of the game is five points or less in the final five minutes of a contest.
LeBron James has played in the last two games for the Lakers after missing the first 14 games of the season with sciatica and the Lakers have won each of these two contests with the forward active. That being said, both of these games were vs. the Jazz, who are 5-12 and rank 25th in net rating this season. While James has been great as a playmaker, averaging 10.0 assists per game, he has struggled as a scorer, averaging just 14 PPG. This is only a sample of two games and James will improve as the season progresses, but the Lakers’ -7.6 net rating with the 40-year-old on the floor this season is notable and concerning. Not only is James not scoring up to his capability, he is not defending well, as the Lakers’ defensive rating is an ugly 122.0 with him on the court.
Maybe James rushed back too soon and with him trying to find his rhythm on both ends of the floor, the Lakers luckily still have Luka Doncic at the helm, who has been outstanding this season and will continue to lead the way for the Lakers tonight, especially with Deandre Ayton (knee) out. Doncic has scored 33 and 37 points playing alongside James in the last two, and Doncic is the NBA’s leading scorer this season at 34.5 PPG, while also averaging 8.9 assists and 8.8 rebounds per game. With Ayton off the floor this season, Doncic’s usage rises a team-high 5.8 percentage points to an absurd 43.9% and he should feast against this struggling Clippers defense that ranks 25th in rating this season.
The Clippers have had a rough start to the season, with a 5-12 record and ranking 24th in net rating. Like the Lakers, the Clippers also just got one of their stars back from injury, with Kawhi Leonard returning this past Sunday vs. the Cavaliers after missing the previous 10 with a knee injury. Even with the two-time NBA Finals MVP returning, the Clippers lost this game 120-105, making the team just 2-3 with Leonard active this season.
Leonard is averaging 23.7 PPG on 50% shooting in his five starts this season, but similar to James and the Lakers, the Clippers have been worse with Leonard on the floor this season, with the team owning a -10.2 net rating with him on the court. James Harden and Ivica Zubac have been great offensively this season, averaging 27.8 and 17.0 PPG, respectively, but the Clippers need Leonard to be a major factor on both ends of the floor for this team to be a legitimate threat again.
Lakers vs. Clippers pick, best bet
While both the Lakers and Clippers have flaws and are trying to adjust as one of their main players makes their way back, the Lakers have been the much better team this season and they should get a win on their home floor tonight.
The Lakers are a strong 11-5 ATS this season, whereas the Clippers are a weak 5-12 ATS, and the Lakers should be able to cover this 6.5-point spread.
