Below you can find all my picks for College Football Week 14 with a quick handicap on the game. The article will be updated throughout the week as bets are added. Our team at DK Network will have breakdowns on nearly every game on the board, so stayed locked in at the website for betting analysis on any college football game you may be interested in.
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State (Friday 12pm ET)
Mississippi State is just 1-6 in its last seven games, and while good teams win, great teams cover — and that’s exactly what the Bulldogs have been doing. Miss State is 8-3 ATS on the season, including 5-1 ATS at home, and will be ready to go for a monster rivalry game. The Bulldogs are very familiar with the underdog role this season, going 6-2 ATS as a dog overall, including 3-1 ATS at home — with an outright win over Arizona State.
The only team to come into Starkville this season and cover as the favorite was Georgia. Miss State has fared well in the Egg Bowl in recent seasons, going 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven matchups (the under has also cashed in all seven of those meetings). Mississippi State has a great chance to play spoiler here, and potentially send Lane Kiffin off to a new gig off a loss.
The Bulldogs have been much better than expected this season, playing Tennessee, Florida, Texas and Arkansas all within one possession in SEC play. Look for the home dog to rally here on Friday afternoon in the Egg Bowl, with all the pressure on Ole Miss.
CFB Pick: Mississippi State +7.5 (-115)
Texas A&M at Texas (Friday 7:30pm ET)
There’s a lot on the line for both sides in this one, with the Aggies playing for the undefeated regular season and a potential bye in the College Football Playoff. Texas is still hanging on to CFP dreams by the skin of its teeth, but a win here is absolutely required to even has a case. A&M had a chance to play spoiler last season in this very game on the final Friday night of the regular season, but was unable to takedown the Longhorns. Now the Aggies will have a chance at some revenge by going on the road and closing the door on the Longhorns’ CFB hopes.
Texas is getting a lot of respect in this one with the number set shorter than a field goal, and the Longhorns a perfect 5-0 at home. But a team like A&M hasn’t traveled to Austin this season. Texas is just 2-3 ATS at home, with those covers coming last week over Arkansas and back in September against Sam Houston State. San Jose State, UTEP and Vanderbilt all covered, with Vandy pushing late to almost comeback and win.
Texas is 2-5 ATS against SEC competition this season, and the only comparable opponent has really been at Georgia. That was a 35-10 stomping in Athens. While I expect Texas to put up a better fight at home, A&M is the superior team on both sides of the ball. I expect them to be 12-0 playing in the SEC title game.
CFB Pick: Texas A&M ML (-130)
Kentucky at Louisville (Saturday 12pm ET)
Backing Kentucky on the road isn’t exactly the most comfortable bet (1-3 SU/ATS this season), but the Wildcats look to be in a strong spot to wrap up their year. Prior to last week’s loss to Vandy, Kentucky was on a three-game winning streak, with outright wins as an underdog over Florida and Auburn. After battling the tough schedule of the SEC all season, the Wildcats should come ready to prove themselves for a big in-state rivalry game.
While Louisville has found ways to win on the road this season, it hasn’t exactly been tough to go up against at home. The Cardinals are just 4-3 straight up at home, and haven’t covered a single home game this season (0-7 ATS – failing to cover by 7.6 PPG)! Miller Moss is considered unlikely to play after missing last week’s blowout loss at SMU, and Louisville has made mention to using multiple quarterbacks in this game. I think that’s an advantage for this Kentucky defense.
The Wildcats are 5-1 SU/ATS in the last six meetings with Louisville, and I expect them to continue that trend. Look for Kentucky to be led by its defense, and capable of enough offensively to get the outright win.
CFB Pick: Kentucky +3.5 (-110)
Oregon at Washington (Saturday 3:30pm ET)
The Huskies have been a tremendous home team over the years, finally having their 22-game home winning streak snapped in September by Ohio State. Washington has gotten back on track, winning and covering each home game since. The Ducks stepped up big against USC last Saturday, winning 42-27 and covering the spread. But going on the road and facing a Washington defense that’s been playing very well down the stretch will be a tougher test.
The big question for the Huskies will be if they can make the explosive plays downfield to stay in this game. I believe Demond Williams and company will be able to do just that. USC just laid the ground work for how to put points on the board against the Ducks, the Huskies just have to get some stops and stop the run — which the Trojans were not able to do.
Laying single digits is the role that Oregon has struggled in this season — failed to cover in a two-point win at Iowa and lost outright to Indiana. Give me Washington to rally at home and take this game right down to the wire.
CFB Pick: Washington +7 (-115)
FSU vs. Florida (Saturday 4:30pm ET)
I backed Florida last week in aq Saturday night home game against Tennessee. It wound up being one of my worst wagers of the season, as the Vols took immediate control of the game and never looked back. I’m going to trust that the Gators haven’t completely packed it in on the season, and use last weeks embarrassment in a rivalry game to fuel this week’s performance.
The Seminoles looked like they might be one of the best teams in the country during their Week 1 victory over Alabama, but this is just a completely different team when we see it play on the road. Not only is FSU 0-4 ATS on the road this season, but also 0-4 straight up, despite being favored in three of the games (and a 1.5-point underdog to Clemson). The Seminoles are losing road games by an average of nearly 10 points per game, while failing to cover by more than 17 PPG.
I’ll back Florida’s defense to rally at home here and play for some pride. FSU’s defense has been vulnerable to big plays, and that’s exactly what DJ Lagway should be able to provide with his explosiveness.
CFB Pick: Florida Moneyline (-110)
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