The Players Era Festival rolls on with an intriguing Big 12-Big East showdown. Despite two early-season losses, #14 St. John’s has its eyes set on a national title. Earning a win against a high-caliber, non-conference opponent would certainly boost the team’s chances. Still, that won’t be easy against a talented Baylor squad.
St. John’s enters this contest as 6.5-point favorites (-108) over Baylor. The total is set at 161.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Tuesday’s game between the Bears and the Red Storm.
Baylor vs. St. John’s prediction, preview
Unlike last year’s squad, the Johnnies are looking to push the pace on offense. Through five games, SJU is pacing the Big East with 95.2 points per game. Leading the way has been Zuby Ejiofor, a candidate for conference player of the year. This season, he’s posted 15.2 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game while shooting 61% from the field. The center has looked terrific from beyond the arc, knocking down 40% of his three-point attempts.
Granted, this certainly isn’t a one-man show. Six different members of the Red Storm are averaging double-digit points per game. That includes prized offseason acquisitions Bryce Hopkins (15.6 PPG) and Ian Jackson (12.6 PPG). With that being said, the Johnnies have seen a significant drop-off on the other end of the floor. SJU ranks 61st in defensive rating, compared to second last season. Finding a balance will be critical for head coach Rick Pitino going forward.
Despite its 4-0 record, Baylor’s defense has given fans cause for concern. The Bears are giving up 76.2 points per game 238th out of 365 Division I schools. Wins over Washington and Creighton are nice, but not exactly needle-moving victories. However, this roster does have several highly touted players, headlined by Tennessee transfer Cameron Carr. The guard has broken out this season, averaging a team-leading 23.0 points per game. The trio of Carr, Tounde Yessoufou and Daniel Skillings have combined for an average of 51.5 points. That’s nearly two-thirds of Baylor’s overall scoring output.
The biggest question for the Bears entering tonight’s contest is how they plan to slow down Ejiofor. Baylor’s three-guard attack has become a staple of head coach Scott Drew’s offensive scheme. However, Caden Powell is the only rotation regular above 6’6″. Ejiofor isn’t the biggest center in terms of height, but he consistently plays above his size. Boxing out an elite offensive rebounder is a challenge for any team, let alone an undersized one.
Baylor vs. St. John’s pick, best bet
Following a brutal one-point loss to Iowa State, St. John’s should have a chip on its shoulder. In comparison, the Bears have gotten a boost from their middling early-season schedule. Both teams can score, but a 161.5-point total doesn’t offer much value to bettors. Down low, expect Ejiofor to make a significant impact against Baylor’s uninspiring front court. That could prove to be the difference in Las Vegas tonight.
