The Carolina Panthers will take on the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night to close down the Week 12 NFL slate.
It has been a hectic year for both sides entering this matchup. The Panthers have a 6-5 record and are tied with the Buccaneers for the lead in the NFC South. They have a chance to take control of the divisional race following Tampa Bay’s loss last night, and the door may be more open than expected, depending on the severity of Baker Mayfield’s injury.
The 49ers are off to a 7-4 start to the season, which slots them at third place in the competitive NFC West. Brock Purdy has battled injuries this year, with him playing in just three games total. He made his return in Week 11 from a turf toe issue and will be starting his second consecutive game for the first time all season. San Francisco has dealt with plenty of injury issues outside the quarterback spot, but has done a solid job remaining afloat.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, the 49ers enter as 7.5-point favorites and hold -410 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Panthers hold +320 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 49.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 12 Monday Night Football matchup between the Panthers and 49ers.
Panthers at 49ers Best Prop Bets
Christian McCaffrey Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
There will be plenty of Christian McCaffrey in this matchup. The former Offensive Player of the Year has done his part to keep the San Francisco offense afloat regardless of who has been at quarterback. McCaffrey has rushed for 707 yards and tallied 732 receiving yards with 11 total touchdowns. He has been targeted a team-high 96 times with his 74 receptions and 732 receiving yards, each more than double the next player on the 49ers.
McCaffrey will have his sights set on his former team and expect San Francisco to make life easy for Brock Purdy by leaning on the running back out of the backfield. Across Purdy’s three starts, McCaffrey has nine receptions for 73 yards, six receptions for 92 yards, and five receptions for 40 yards. In total, he is averaging 66.5 receiving yards per game and has tallied over 48.5 receiving yards in nine of the 11 games.
The Panthers have allowed 54 receptions to opposing running backs, which is the fourth-most in the league. San Francisco leans on this area of attack in general, and this will especially be the case given the matchup. McCaffrey is talented enough to take any short pass for a monstrous gain and will see plenty of opportunities to do so. Expect the star running back to add to his impressive receiving total and record over 48.5 yards through the air for the 10th time this season.
Bryce Young Over 209.5 Passing Yards (-112)
It has been an up-and-down start to Bryce Young’s NFL career. The 2023 first overall pick was benched for Andy Dalton just last year, but has shown some encouraging signs of late. He is coming off a career-high 448 passing yards last week against the Falcons, with three touchdowns, and without an interception. It took 45 attempts and an overtime period to get there, but these were heights as a passer that were encouraging to see. Young will look to build off this in a friendly matchup against this 49ers’ defense.
So far this season, San Francisco ranks 16th in points allowed and 26th in total yards conceded. Looking just at their pass defense, the 49ers rank 28th in passing yards allowed, 26th in net yards per pass attempt, and 26th in passing touchdowns conceded. They are giving up an average of 249.5 passing yards per game, and they also rank dead last in total air yards allowed. With the 49ers entering as a 7.5-point favorite, the likelihood of the Panthers being forced to play from behind also favors Young needing to throw the ball more.
On the season, Young is averaging 196.2 passing yards per game. He has been held to under 209.5 passing yards in eight of the 10 games but has thrown for 328 and 448 in the pair of games he has surpassed this total. Last week was his most promising game as a pro, and Carolina will be hoping for him to build off this. San Francisco has struggled to generate a consistent pass rush all year, and I expect Young to have plenty of time in the pocket to execute. The 49ers also do not have a player in the secondary over 6 feet, which is encouraging for 6-foot-5 wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan to utilize his wide catch radius. Expect the Panthers to show some more trust in Young and for him to have success against a vulnerable opposing defense and air the ball out regularly tonight.
George Kittle Anytime Touchdown (+115)
Through the six games he has played, George Kittle has pulled in 27 receptions for 251 yards and five touchdowns. He has reached the end zone in four of the six games overall and is coming off a two-touchdown performance last week. Kittle has been a consistent red zone target for this 49ers team throughout his career, with at least six touchdowns in each of the past four seasons and as many as 11 in a year.
He will now face off against a Panthers’ defense that ranks dead last in DVOA against tight ends and has given up the fourth-most total yards to the position. They have allowed five touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, despite facing a top-15 tight end in fantasy football production just five times. This is a trend, as they also allowed more touchdowns to opposing tight ends last season than any other team.
Kittle has played just two games alongside Purdy this season and has three touchdowns across this stretch. Outside of McCaffrey, he is San Francisco’s top touchdown threat. With Carolina being vulnerable in this area of the matchup and it already a part of the 49ers’ planned attack, look for Kittle to find pay dirt for the sixth time this season.
