Feast Week gets underway in college hoops with some tremendous matchups on Monday, including a slew of games throughout the day in Las Vegas. Michigan and San Diego State are set to tipoff as one of the late night games from Sin City. Let’s breakdown a betting prediction for the Wolverines vs. the Aztecs.
Michigan vs. San Diego State (Monday – 10:30pm ET)
Michigan has been tested early and often so far this season, getting pushed to the brink by much less talented rosters. Wake Forest pushed the Wolverines to overtime, while TCU also took them down to the wire in a game the Frogs led at halftime. Michigan won both games by one and four points, respectively.
San Diego State is a worthy opponent, and my initial look here was going to be siding with the underdog — SDSU is catching 5.5 points. But after digging a bit deeper, I’m looking at a play on the total in this one.
Brian Dutcher and the Aztecs are known for their defense, and we saw that early on in the season. SDSU beat Long Beach State by a score of 77-45, and then Idaho State 73-57. But last week, Troy pushed the Aztecs completely out of their comfort zone in a high-paced game. Troy actually wound up winning the game outright in double overtime, with a final score of 108-107. That’s not the basketball San Diego State wants to play.
With nearly a week off to prep for Michigan and chew on that loss, I expect the Aztecs to be completely locked in. Look for SDSU to control the pace of this game — it ranks 227th in adjusted tempo and 20th in defensive rating on KenPom. Sticking with the KenPom metrics, neither team has been proficient on offense either. The Aztecs rank 65th in offensive rating, while the Wolverines are up at 43rd.
That said, Michigan’s defensive rating is among the elite in the country, currently at sixth on KenPom. In a true road game at TCU, Michigan wound up scoring just 67 points in a 67-63 win. On a neutral in Las Vegas, I believe we’ll see both teams leaning on their defenses here. Combine that with a concerted effort by the Aztecs to control the pace after how their last outing went, and I think we have a strong angle to play the under in this one.
College Basketball Pick: Michigan vs. San Diego State UNDER 148.5 (-110)
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