As part of tonight’s 10-game NBA slate, there are only two matchups that feature two teams currently in the top six of their respective conference’s standings, but both legs of the Peacock double-header are beset by injuries.
One matchup, between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors, will see Cleveland sit Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, and De’Andre Hunter on the second night of a back-to-back and Toronto be without RJ Barrett. Then, at 9:30 p.m. ET, the red-hot Phoenix Suns will host the Houston Rockets, with the Rockets’ Kevin Durant (personal) and Suns guards Jalen Green (hamstring) and Grayson Allen (quadriceps) and center Mark Williams (knee injury management) all out.
Despite Durant’s absence, Houston is a 6.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-230 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 223.5. Phoenix, meanwhile, is +190 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s southwestern battle and offer my prediction.
Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns preview, prediction
Though the Rockets have lost just four games this season, all have come against likely playoff teams in the 17-1 Oklahoma City Thunder, the 14-2 Detroit Pistons, the 12-4 Denver Nuggets, and the 11-5 San Antonio Spurs, and they’ve only picked up two wins against teams currently in the top six in either conference’s standings. Still, despite the flaws, Houston has to feel great about young center Alperen Şengün’s superstar leap. This season, the 23-year-old Turk is averaging 22.7 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game, surpassed in each of his stats only by Nikola Jokić. Plus, Amen Thompson has been a strong defender, and 2024 third overall pick Reed Sheppard has canned 48.8% of his triples.
The Suns should present a tough matchup. Like the Rockets, they’ve won 10 of their last 12 games despite the fact that Green has played just two of 17 possible games, Dillon Brooks only 11, and Allen 13. Devin Booker has reclaimed his status as the undisputed top scoring option without sacrificing efficiency, averaging 26.9 points and 7.1 assists per game on a solid 52.1% effective field goal percentage, and the combination of Williams and Oso Ighodaro has held it down in the middle. Brooks is now fully healthy and is averaging more than 20 points per game for the first time in his career.
Rockets at Suns pick, best bet
Houston should have a huge advantage on the boards, even if Steven Adams — who’s questionable with an ankle injury — doesn’t end up suiting up. The Rockets have been dominant on the glass this season, leading the league in rebounds, rebounding percentage, and second chance points, and while that can largely be tied to the 188 minutes that Adams and Şengün have played together, Houston has generally been effective on the glass with virtually any combination of players. Durant’s absence could hurt as well, but the Rockets have still out-rebounded opponents even in the 182 minutes that they’ve played without him. Phoenix could be slightly better without Williams, a negative asset on the glass for his size, but it still ranks just 19th in rebounds, 10th in rebounding percentage, and 11th in second chance points.
Even during their hot streak, the Suns have been just average at the rim, allowing the 14th-highest percentage in the restricted area and the ninth-best accuracy in the non-restricted paint over the last 12 games. That could be an issue against a Houston team that has attempted the 12th-most shots at the rim and the seventh-most shots from floater range this season. The Rockets have allowed a similar percentage within the restricted area as Phoenix over the last 12 games, but they’ve been much better from the non-restricted paint. Plus, paint scoring isn’t really a part of the Suns’ game: they’ve attempted the second-fewest restricted area tries over the last 12 games.
Because the advantage in the paint lies squarely with Houston, Phoenix will have to shoot the lights out and defend the perimeter in order to slow down the Rockets’ league-best offense. So far, it has done just that, shooting 40.0% from beyond the arc over the last 12 games and holding opponents to just 31.8% accuracy. There’s some luck to that, though: while the Suns have done a good job contesting threes and limited opponents to the sixth-fewest wide-open looks per game, the 34.7% mark that opponents have shot is unsustainably low. Houston, too, is due for plenty of shooting luck regression, given that it’s shot 47.1% on wide-open threes despite creating the fifth-fewest uncontested tries per game. It’ll also have to do a much better job defensively, given that it’s allowed the third-most wide-open treys. All in all, the hosts have a slight advantage in perimeter play, but not enough to overshadow their disadvantage inside.
The Rockets have an edge in most other important areas of the game. They’ve turned the ball over less, fouled less, and drawn more fouls than Phoenix in the last 12 games, though the Suns have forced more turnovers and allowed fewer second chance points. Plus, Houston doesn’t have much of a road disadvantage, posting exactly the same defensive rating away from the Toyota Center and dipping only 2.5 points per 100 possessions on offense. All in all, it’ll be enough for the Rockets to cover the spread.
