It hasn’t quite been a perfect season for George Kittle or the San Francisco 49ers, but to sit at 7-4 with quarterback Brock Purdy missing all but three games and Kittle missing five is pretty impressive.
San Francisco welcomed Purdy back last weekend, to excellent results, and it’ll hope to keep the good times rolling in tonight’s 8:15 p.m. ET Monday Night Football home game against the Carolina Panthers. Kittle, too, looks fully healthy five games into his return from a hamstring tear that he suffered in the season opener.
The 49ers are 7.5-point favorites for tonight’s marquee matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 49.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around the veteran tight end.
Best George Kittle Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
George Kittle 60+ Receiving Yards (-105)
Before his injury in Week 1, Kittle was on a roll, catching all four of his passes for 25 yards and a touchdown in just his first 21 snaps against the Seattle Seahawks, and he’s once again emerged as San Francisco’s top target in the last two weeks, recording 84 yards and a touchdown in Week 10 and 67 yards and two scores in Week 11.
He’s also averaged more than 60 yards per game in each of the two full seasons with Purdy as the starter and 58.6 yards per game across his five starts in 2022. It’s no coincidence: last season, Purdy targeted the middle of the field with 52.7% of his throws and was highly effective when he did so, and Kittle was dominant in those zones. His backup, Mac Jones, targets the short and intermediate middle slightly less frequently and slightly less effectively than Purdy.
Plus, he has a friendly matchup against a Panthers defense that has conceded the ninth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends and ranks sixth-to-last by expected points added. He’s expected to line up most frequently against Carolina’s safeties, where starters Tre’von Moehrig and Nick Scott rank just 39th and 52nd among 91 qualified safeties by Pro Football Focus’ grades. Also, the Panthers have fared somewhat better against the run, so Purdy might be incentivized to throw instead of handing it off to Christian McCaffrey.
George Kittle Anytime TD Scorer (+115)
Kittle has recorded at least one touchdown in four of his six games this season, including three of his last four, and he trails Jauan Jennings for second on the team in red zone targets despite playing three fewer games than the wideout. He’s also done more with those targets than Jennings has, catching all eight of his targets into 67 yards and four scores, while Jennings’ 10 targets have only resulted in four catches, 31 yards, and two touchdowns. Last season, he ranked 17th in the league in red zone target share (fifth among tight ends). For its part, Carolina has allowed five touchdowns to tight ends, tied for the ninth-most in the league, and between them, Moehrig and Scott have been responsible for a combined three scores.
