Heading into the last couple of weeks before the fantasy football playoffs, finding difference-makers in your lineups remains important as ever. Woody Marks looked like a breakout rookie running back for the Houston Texans, but his fantasy production has proven inconsistent throughout the year. After a down week last time out, can he bounce back in Week 13 against the division rival Indianapolis Colts?
Analysis
Selected in the fourth round during this year’s NFL Draft, Woody Marks took a few weeks to gain control of the backfield but hasn’t really looked back since. He’s handled double-digit rushing attempts in all but one game since Week 4 and has played at least 66% of his team’s snaps over each of the last three weeks. With 14 or more carries in all of those contests and Nick Chubb relegated to 26% of snaps or fewer, the stars have aligned for Marks’ takeover in the Texans’ backfield. After all, sharp players predicted this when Houston traded future draft capital to move up and select the rookie back in April.
However, the fantasy points haven’t really come on a consistent basis for Marks. He averages 9.2 FPPG this season in PPR formats, a tally which sees an uptick to 11.3 FPPG since taking over in a larger role back in Week 4. However, there have been just as many disappointing weeks as productive ones — the rookie has four finishes of 12.5 PPR points or greater, but another four of 7.9 points or fewer. That lack of consistent scoring makes him a bit of a scary asset to start during any given week since he’s tough to depend on, but could that shift in Week 13?
It’s difficult to tell, but there are a couple of trends to note. For one, Marks averages just 3.7 YPC, a pretty poor mark even with the added context of operating behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. He’s not particularly efficient, and he’s been bottled up for fewer than 3.0 YPC in three of his last six matchups. Volume of 14+ carries as in the last three weeks, as well as the goal-line role for touchdown upside, can both help make up for the efficiency. On the flip side though, the Texans aren’t properly utilizing Marks’ most prolific skill. While in college, he hauled in an absurd 261 receptions — so why does he have just two targets over his last two games? That’s a significant oversight, and it hurts his fantasy value in PPR formats if not given chances to show off his soft hands in the receiving game.
Looking specifically to this week, the Colts are a very difficult matchup. Indianapolis ranks seventh-best in opponent rushing yards allowed per game (97.4), 10th in YPC allowed (4.0), and 12th in rushing TDs allowed per contest (0.8). Granted, the Colts are 15th in defensive EPA/rush, but they’re largely a stout unit on the ground. Couple that with the fact the Texans’ offense has its own issues to solve (19th in yards/game at 323.4, 21st in PPG with 22.1), and there may not be too many scoring opportunities for Houston’s run game.
Marks can slot into FLEX spots in fantasy lineups, but there’s little reason to bank on him being much more. He’s a volume-based play for Week 12 who managers must hope scores a touchdown or sees a bump in receiving work to really feel good about starting in the first place, so he’s better left on benches at this critical juncture of the campaign.
