The Los Angeles Rams will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Week 12 Sunday Night Football matchup. Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield are two of the more entertaining quarterbacks in the sport, and both have their teams sitting at the top of their respective divisions.
The Rams are 8-2 on the season and lead the NFC West, while the Buccaneers sit atop the NFC South after a 6-4 start to the season. Both rank in the top six in their odds to win the NFC on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Rams leading the Conference at +260 odds.
Looking at the odds of this matchup, the Rams enter as 7-point favorites, and hold -355 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Buccaneers hold +280 odds of winning outright, and the game total is set at O/U 49.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 12 Sunday Night Football matchup.
Buccaneers at Rams Best Prop Bets
Puka Nacua Under 7.5 Receptions (-125)
You can make a pretty convincing case that Puka Nacua has been the best wide receiver in football this year. He leads the league with 87 targets and has pulled in 73 receptions for 850 yards and four touchdowns. Typically, the under is not the side you want to be on regarding Nacua’s props, but his outlook has changed a bit in recent weeks.
Nacua had eight or more receptions in each of his first five games, but has not cleared this number since. The Pro Bowler has battled some injury issues, and Los Angeles has wisely looked to limit the wear and tear. He missed the Week 7 matchup with the Jaguars and is averaging just 53.8% of the offensive snaps since. Nacua was logging 80.0% of snaps through the first five games and played as many as 92.6% of the offensive snaps in a matchup. After being targeted 11+ times in four of the first five games, he has not seen more than eight targets in a game since.
This is less about Nacua’s level of talent and more about is opportunity as the organization looks to be making a clear effort to preserve his health. In addition, the Rams enter as seven-point favorites and an expectation that they may be playing this game with a lead. This will limit the passing opportunities. There are plenty of mouths to feed in the Los Angeles offense who can step up outside of the star pass catcher, and the volume of these opportunities should not be overly plentiful. After averaging 10.4 receptions on 12.4 targets through the first five weeks, Nacua is averaging 5.3 receptions on 6.3 targets since. Expect him to be held to under 7.5 receptions for the fifth straight week.
Baker Mayfield Over 241.5 Passing Yards (-111)
On the other side of this game script, expect Baker Mayfield to see some expanded passing opportunities. Entering as seven-point underdogs, it would not be surprising for the Buccaneers to be forced to play from behind and air it out throughout. Garbage time numbers count all the same, and Mayfield is sure to provide as much of an offensive pulse throughout, even if the team is trailing.
Looking at his numbers on the year, Baker Mayfield is completing 63.5% of his pass attempts for 2,365 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and just three picks on the season. The former first overall pick is averaging 236.5 passing yards per game and has thrown for over 241.5 passing yards in four of his past seven games.
Los Angeles ranks 21st in passing yards allowed this season and is giving up an average of 255.0 passing yards per game. This includes Sam Darnold throwing for 279 yards against them last week and Mac Jones recording 319 passing yards the week before this. There is no level of quit in Mayfield, and he is sure to do everything possible to give the Buccaneers a chance by continuing to rack up passing yards throughout. Look for him to exceed 241.5 passing yards with a favorable defensive matchup and the game script expected to be in his favor.
Matthew Stafford Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+147)
Despite playing in his age-37 season, you could make a case that Matthew Stafford is just now playing his best football. The former Super Bowl champion is posting a 66.0% completion percentage, with 2,557 passing yards, and an NFL-best 27 passing touchdowns, and just two interceptions. Los Angeles leans on him heavily, especially around the red zone. While the Rams are just 18th in rushing touchdowns, they lead the NFL in passing touchdowns, with this their clear preferred method of attack.
Tampa Bay has struggled to stop the pass this season, which makes this a concerning matchup. They rank 27th in passing yards allowed, 17th in EPA per pass play, 26th in net yards per pass attempt, and 15th in passing touchdowns conceded. Josh Allen had three passing touchdowns against them last week, along with three individual rushing scores, and the Rams will look to land on a similar style of attack.
With the Buccaneers being weak against the pass and this being the Rams’ preferred method of attack, this has the makings of a strong performance by Stafford. Look for this to especially come into play in the red zone. Count on the Rams leaning on Stafford’s precision passing in tight spaces and for Sean McVay to continue trusting him at a high level in this area. Stafford is averaging 2.7 passing yards per game, and count on him recording three touchdowns through the air for the sixth time this season.
