A calculated veteran meets an explosive rising star on Saturday when Jack Hermansson takes on Myktybek Orolbai at UFC Fight Night in Doha, Qatar.
Both fighters last appeared in June, with Hermansson aiming to rebound from a first-round knockout loss, and Orolbai looking to build on the momentum from a first-round submission victory.
Orolbai enters as a -205 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Hermansson sits as a +170 underdog. The total is set at 2.5 rounds. Here’s my best bet for Saturday’s welterweight showdown.
Jack Hermansson vs. Myktybek Orolbai Preview
Hermansson (24–9) has been a staple of the welterweight division since his Octagon debut in September 2016. Like his NBA nickname counterpart, “The Joker” is the embodiment of strong fundamentals, relying on solid footwork, meticulous striking, and a sound grappling game.
The Swedish veteran is the definition of battle-tested, engaging in over two decades’ worth of fights and coming away with 11 knockouts and six submissions. But as he’s gotten older, Hermansson’s consistency has started to fade.
Starting with his second-round knockout loss to Jared Cannonier in September 2019, Hermansson has alternated between wins and losses over his last nine fights — a trend punctuated by a brutal first-round knockout against Gregory Rodrigues at UFC 317. At 37 years old, it’s fair to wonder how many more of these shots he can take:
Orolbai (14–2–1) burst onto the scene with a second-round submission victory over Uros Medic in his UFC debut in November 2023. The 27-year-old Kyrgyz has gone 3–1 in the Octagon, rebounding from a split-decision loss to Mateusz Rebecki last October with a first-round submission against Tofiq Musayev in June.
In stark contrast to his opponent, Orolbai is aggressive, explosive, and wildly unpredictable — pushing the pace early and overwhelming his opponents with powerful striking and crafty grappling. Twelve of his 14 wins have come by finish, including six knockouts and six submissions. But while he enters with a clear advantage in speed and athleticism, Orolbai has yet to face an opponent with the experience and fight IQ of Hermansson.
Jack Hermansson vs. Myktybek Orolbai Pick, Best Bet
Hermansson will remain in the fight as long as he controls distance, leans on his grappling, and stays out of harm’s way. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll be able to weather the initial storm against such an explosive opponent in Orolbai.
Let’s reflect on UFC 322 from earlier this month, specifically the bout between Benoit Saint Denis and Beneil Dariush. The chaos-loving, surging contender pressed forward and flattened the aging veteran — who had suffered multiple recent knockouts — with one punch.
Count on history to repeat itself on Saturday night.
