Two elite matchups, No. 1 Arman Tsarukyan vs. No. 6 Dan Hooker and No. 2 Belal Muhammad vs. No. 6 Ian Machado Garry, headline the UFC’s debut in Qatar. The former champion Muhammad is coming off a loss, but had an 11-fight unbeaten streak before that. Machado Garry represents both Ireland and Brazil and has a 9-1 record in the UFC, with his most recent victory coming against Carlos Prates.
Check out my prediction for Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry at UFC Qatar.
Ian Machado Garry To Win By Decision (-125)
After suffering his first career loss, Machado Garry bounced back in a big way with a win over Prates, who just beat former champion Leon Edwards at UFC 322. Garry outlanded Prates 126-63 in significant strikes and finished with 3:09 of control time and four takedowns.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Garry is a -270 favorite with the former champion being a +220 underdog. With Islam Makhachev as the new Welterweight Champion, a new challenger is needed, and with an impressive performance, the winner of this contest could be next for the new champion.
Garry’s last four victories were against Carlos Prates, Michael “Venom” Page, Geoff Neal, and Neil Magny. All four of those fighters are talented and experienced, but none of them has the championship pedigree that Muhammad possesses. Although Muhammad is well-rounded, Garry has the skill set to defeat him.
Garry is four inches taller (6’3″ vs. 5’11”) and has a two-inch edge in standing reach (74″ vs. 72″). On the feet, Garry is the more advanced striker, averaging more significant strikes per minute (4.77 vs. 4.46). Muhammad has the advantage on the ground, landing 1.22 more takedowns per 15 minutes than Garry does. But Garry should be able to neutralize Muhammad’s takedown attacks with his 73 percent takedown defense. Since Garry’s previous four wins have come by decision, you can get him to win once again on the judges’ scorecards at -125.
