The college football season is winding down with Bowl season right around the corner. As part of the noon slate across the Week 13 action, the Miami Hurricanes will take on the Virginia Tech Hokies. These teams have had very different seasons, but neither is holding the outlook they desire with the year coming to a close.
These programs have faced off 41 times in their history. Miami has come out on top in 26 of these matchups, including four straight entering this season.
Looking at the odds for this year, Miami enters as an 18.5-point favorite and holds -1000 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Virginia Tech holds +650 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 48.5 points.
This article provides a preview of both teams and offers a pick for the Week 13 matchup.
Miami vs. Virginia Tech prediction, preview
Miami Hurricanes
Miami enters this week ranked 13th in the country but will need an extremely strong finish to the season and likely some help from some other teams to receive a College Football Playoff opportunity. They hold a record of 8-2 on the season and are 4-2 in ACC play. The Hurricanes dropped games at the hands of Louisville and SMU, although they enter this matchup coming off back-to-back wins against Syracuse and NC State in convincing fashion. They opened the season as the 10th-ranked team and peaked as high as second in the AP Poll, but this pair of losses changed their outlook significantly. Miami has gone 6-4 against the spread with the under cashing in six of their games this season.
Carson Beck has had some ups and downs at quarterback this year. The Georgia transfer is posting an ACC-best 73.2% completion percentage for 2,485 yards, 18 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Malachi Toney leads the team in receiving with 698 yards through the air and five touchdowns. CJ Daniels has an ACC-best six receiving scores along with 351 yards, while Keelan Marion adds 465 receiving yards and a touchdown of his own. On the ground, Mark Fletcher Jr. leads the team with 636 rushing yards and nine scores. CharMar Brown and Girard Pringle Jr. have combined for nine touchdowns and 596 yards at the running back spot.
The Hurricanes are averaging 33.7 points per game, which ranks 27th in the country, and generating 426.2 total yards of offense. They have impressed defensively, limiting opponents to 14.2 points per game. This marks the seventh-best rate among FBS teams, and they are allowing just 270.9 total yards of offense per game. Miami has tallied 25.0 sacks and forced 18 turnovers on the season. Their +17.0 average point differential ranks ninth in the country.
Virginia Tech Hokies
For the first time all season, there is a flicker of hope down in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech officially announced that James Franklin will be the program’s next head coach following their firing of Brent Pry after the 0-3 start and Franklin’s own implosion at Penn State. Franklin’s impact and shaping of the team will not be felt until next season, but he is a far stronger candidate than what seemed to be available when the initial decision to fire Pry was made.
Following the 0-3 start, which led to the coaching change, Virginia Tech has managed to scrap back to 3-7 on the season. Their victories have come against Wofford, NC State, and California. The Hokies are just 2-8 against the spread, and the under has cashed in six of the 10 games.
Kyron Drones has underwhelmed in his third season with the program under center. The Baylor transfer has posted a 58.3% completion percentage and thrown for 1,717 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He does lead the team with nine rushing touchdowns along with 578 yards on the ground. Virginia Tech has just two other rushing scores on the season, one of which comes from their starting running back, Marcellous Hawkins, who has carried the ball for 677 yards this season. Ayden Greene is the team’s leading receiver with 421 yards and three scores.
As a team, Virginia Tech is averaging just 23.3 points per contest, which ranks 100th in the FBS. They average 359.3 yards per game, with just 171.7 of these coming through the air. Defensively, opponents are scoring 30.1 points per game, which ranks 109th, and generating 373.9 total yards of offense. The Hokies have tallied 18 sacks and forced just six turnovers all season.
Miami vs. Virginia Tech pick, best bet
There will be a bit of a boost in the crowd and from the fan base following the head coaching news — but not enough to make up for the gap in talent in this matchup. This is especially the case considering Miami must play its best possible football to even convince the committee they are worthy of a playoff spot.
Virginia Tech is a bad team on both sides of the football that has failed to get results, as indicated by their 2-8 record against the spread. Their offense should especially be expected to dominate against a Miami defense that has allowed 10 or fewer points in three of the past four weeks. The Hurricanes also allow the third-fewest rushing yards per game this season. They will force Drones to beat them with his arm, and he has not proven capable of doing this all year.
On the other side of this matchup, Virginia Tech ranks 129th among the 136 FBS teams in opponents’ red-zone percentage, with teams converting at a 92.7% rate. Turnover issues have popped up at times for Carson Beck, but the Hokies have forced just four interceptions and six total turnovers all season. Unless Miami makes some self-inflicted mistakes, it feels like Virginia Tech will have little chance in this matchup.
18.5 is a notable spread, but a margin Miami has cleared in six of its eight wins this season. The overtime loss to SMU back on November 1st put this team in a tough spot from a playoff perspective. But they have responded accordingly, winning back-to-back games by a combined margin of 79-17. Expect the Hurricanes to be hungry to pour on points when they get a lead and make this as significant a blowout as possible with style points for the committee in mind. Virginia Tech is a far inferior football team, and Miami should capitalize.
