A pivotal ACC clash is on tap this weekend in Dallas. With only one conference loss, SMU could make a return to the title game in December. The road to Charlotte is a bit more daunting for Louisville, losers of two straight. Can the Cardinals turn things around on Saturday vs. the Mustangs?
SMU enters this contest as three-point favorites (-102) over Louisville, with the over/under set at 51.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mustangs are favored at -155 on the moneyline.
Louisville vs. SMU prediction, preview
These are two well-rounded squads, each possessing play makers on both sides of the ball. For SMU, it all comes down to Kevin Jennings, one of the nation’s most underrated quarterbacks. Through ten games, he’s thrown for 2,810 yards and 21 touchdowns. Turnovers (nine interceptions) are an issue, but the junior’s big play ability often comes in handy. That’ll be put to the test on Saturday against an elite Cardinals secondary. Louisville is holding opponents to an ACC-best 188.0 passing yards per game.
Fortunately for the Mustangs, they can beat defenses in a number of different ways. The running back duo of TJ Harden and Chris Johnson Jr. have combined for 927 rushing yards and ten touchdowns. Through the air, three different SMU wideouts have recorded at least 460 receiving yards and three TDs. This offense has scored 30+ points in four of its previous six contests, not counting a Week 10 win over Miami.
As previously mentioned, Louisville’s defense has enough talent to, at the very least, keep SMU in check. However, the Cardinals aren’t in the best spot on offense. Running backs Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown have both been ruled out for Saturday’s game. This season, the pair have combined for 1,374 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. Third-stringer Duke Watson is expected to handle RB1 duties this weekend. That won’t be easy against a Mustangs defense allowing 102.1 rushing yards per game, third-best in the ACC.
Injuries in the backfield have placed even more pressure on Cardinals quarterback Miller Moss. The senior, while solid, isn’t what you’d call a dynamic passer. Through ten games this season, he’s thrown for 2,344 yards and 11 touchdowns while giving up seven interceptions. To make matters worse, Moss is dealing with an injury of his own, making him questionable to play. One of Brady Allen or Duece Adams would get the start in his absence.
Louisville vs. SMU pick, best bet
There are too many variables for me to back the Cardinals with any level of confidence. Three straight losses would be a brutal end to the season for Jeff Brohm’s scrappy squad. However, an inability to throw the ball means Louisville can’t exploit SMU’s weak secondary. On the flip side, the Mustangs have far more weapons at their disposal to eke out a needed victory.
