While it is not in the sport that it is most commonly reference, the Tobacco Road Rivalry will be taking place on the football field this week as the Duke Blue Devils prepare to face the North Carolina Tar Heels. Tipping off at 3:30 p.m. ET as part of the Week 13 college football slate, this is a big matchup with bowl eligibility also still up for grabs.
These teams have faced off 107 times on the football field in their history. North Carolina has gotten the upper hand in 63 of these matchups, with four ties tallied throughout the years. Duke did pick up a victory in the most recent game in 2024, which snapped a five-game winning streak from North Carolina in matchup history.
Looking at the odds for this year, Duke enters as a 6.5-point favorite and holds -258 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook of winning outright. North Carolina holds +210 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 51.5 points.
This article provides a preview of both teams and offers a pick for the Week 13 matchup.
Duke vs. North Carolina prediction, preview
Duke Blue Devils
The Duke Blue Devils enter with a 5-5 record on the season, including going 4-2 in ACC Conference play. They are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, which came at the hands of UConn and Virginia, and they have lost three of their last four. The Blue Devils are 4-6 against the spread on the season, and the game total has gone over in seven of the 10 games this year.
Manny Diaz’s squad is averaging 33.4 points per game, which ranks 31st among FBS teams. They are generating 432.7 total yards of offense, with over 300 coming through the air. Defensively, they have not had as much luck. Duke is allowing an average of 29.6 points per game, which ranks 101st out of the 136 qualifying FBS teams. The Blue Devils have conceded an average of 420.3 yards of offense and 2.3 rushing touchdowns per game. They have allowed 21+ points in each of their past five games and eight overall, as well as 33+ in six games.
Darian Mensah stands in at quarterback and has had a largely successful year. The Tulane transfer is posting a 68.0% completion percentage and has thrown for 3,007 passing yards and 25 touchdowns, which each lead the ACC, while throwing just four interceptions. Cooper Barkate leads the team with 868 receiving yards and six touchdowns, while Sean Miller adds 598 receiving yards as well as three scores, and Shamir Hagans pitches in five touchdowns along with 373 yards through the air. Nate Sheppard headlines the rushing attack with 700 rushing yards and seven scores. Anderson Castle adds six rushing scores of his own, along with 365 yards on the ground.
North Carolina Tar Heels
The Bill Belichick era has been off to an interesting start in North Carolina. The Tar Heels hold a 4-6 record and have dropped five of their last seven. Their victories have come against Richmond, Charlotte, Syracuse, and Stanford this season. North Carolina is 5-5 against the spread, and their record to the over/under is 2-7-1 on the season.
The Tar Heels are averaging just 18.7 points per game, which ranks 123rd out of the 136 qualifying D1 teams. They are generating an average of just 289.5 total yards of offense, including just 180.3 passing yards. Defensively, North Carolina has limited opponents to 22.0 points per game, which ranks 44th, while allowing 330.5 total yards of offense. North Carolina is coming off a 28-12 loss to Wake Forest last week, but held opponents to 17 or fewer in each of the previous three weeks.
Neither Gio Lopez nor Max Johnson has been good enough at the quarterback position in the larger conversation on the season. Lopez has primarily held down the role and posted a 63.3% completion percentage, while throwing for 1,425 yards, eight touchdowns, and five interceptions, and adding 121 yards and two scores on the ground. Demon June is the team’s leading rusher at 452 yards and two touchdowns on the season. Jordan Shipp headlines the wide receiver production with 44 receptions for 498 yards and four scores, while Kobe Paysour has 326 receiving yards and one touchdown on the season.
Duke vs. North Carolina pick, best bet
North Carolina has not quite hit the ground running in the Belichick era the way it was hoped, but they have shown progress throughout the year. The defense has been a respectable unit all season, and Gio Lopez has shown encouraging signs. After averaging 119.4 passing yards per game through the opening five games and being held below 90 passing yards in two matchups, Lopez has thrown for 200+ yards in each of the past four games. The bar of expectation is low but the Tar Heels has eclipsed 20 points in two of the last three weeks, which mark the only two games this has occurred all year.
This is a great opportunity to build off this with Duke looking vulnerable defensively. The Blue Devils are allowing 273.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 128th nationally. They do not crack the top 100 in opponents’ points per game, rank 130th in red zone percentage allowed, and are giving up an average of 420.3 total yards of offense.
The rivalry adds an intriguing twist, with North Carolina showing success in this matchup through the years. They have covered the spread in each of their last six matchups as an underdog against Duke. They also are 8-2-1 against the spread as an underdog in their last home game of the season across the past decade.
The Tar Heels have looked more encouraging in recent weeks, and this is a stylistic matchup that favors them. Expect the North Carolina offense to do enough to give the team a chance, and for the defensive unit to maintain their high level of play. With the rivalry in mind and the home crowd behind them, North Carolina should absolutely be viewed as live underdogs. But for the sake of the article, I am locking in North Carolina to cover the 6.5-point spread.
