There are some great games on the NFL Week 11 slate as the regular season enters its second half. With plenty of ways to get in on the action on DraftKings Sportsbook, this is a look at my best bets for NFL Week 12.
NFL Week 12 Best Bets
Saints -2.5 (-110) vs. Falcons
The Falcons are in an awful spot against the Saints. Sitting at 3-7, with Michael Penix Jr. out for the season, their season is all but over. Kirk Cousins will be starting the rest of the season, and he has played poorly this season when called upon. Out of 44 qualified quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins ranks 42nd in EPA+CPOE composite. Only J.J. McCarthy and Dillon Gabriel have been worse. To make matters worse for the Falcons, Drake London will miss this game with an injury. That makes life even harder for Kirk Cousins, as the Falcons have had no second receiver emerge as a real target outside of London.
With Cousins starting and no London to throw to, the Falcons will lean heavily on the running game in this spot. However, defending the run is what the Saints do best. The New Orleans defense ranks seventh in the NFL in EPA/rush this season. They should be able to slow down the Falcons’ run game, with a heavy focus on Atlanta’s only real weapon, Bijan Robinson. New Orleans got a nice win before the bye week and should be confident and well-prepared for this game. The Saints have won four of their past five against the Saints in New Orleans. They should win this one against a downtrodden Falcons team as well.
Jameson Williams Longest Reception o25.5 Yards (-110)
Lions offensive coordinator John Morton spoke about needing to get the ball to Jameson Williams more often during the bye week. Over the three games since the bye week, Jameson Williams has been the Lions’ top receiver. That effort to get Williams more targets and to utilize his skillset has been clear. Williams is averaging 91 yards per game over that stretch, with at least six targets in each of the three games. More importantly, Jared Goff has hit at least one deep shot to Williams in each game. He has a long reception of 37 yards, 41 yards and 40 yards in those three games.
Williams should continue to succeed against the Giants this week. New York ranks 23rd in the NFL in defensive EPA/dropback. The Giants’ defense has given up 32 20+ yard passes this season, tied for the tenth-most allowed in the NFL. Jared Goff is also much better at looking deep when at home throughout his career. Goff is averaging over eight air yards per attempt when at home, compared to 7.3 AY/A on the road. That split has been even more dramatic this season, with Goff averaging 9.4 air yards per attempt in Detroit so far in 2025. Jameson Williams should keep his hot streak going and catch another deep ball against the Giants.
Six-Point Teaser: 49ers -1 & Steelers +8.5
The 49ers are still on a good path to make the playoffs and even compete for the NFC West. There was a discussion about whether or not Brock Purdy was a real upgrade over Mac Jones or not. Purdy put that to bed with a fantastic performance against the Cardinals. Purdy ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA+CPOE composite this season. This team is also getting healthier with Ricky Pearsall back and ramping up to game speed. This offense is going to be hard to stop the rest of the season for any defense. Carolina ranks 24th in defensive EPA/dropback and should struggle to stop the great 49ers passing attack. The Panthers are having a nice season, but this is a tough trip across the country. Bryce Young has struggled on the road in his career and has never won a primetime game. The 49ers should win this game and continue their great season.
The Steelers are set for a tough game against the Bears. Pittsburgh still leads the AFC North, with a one-game lead over the Ravens. Pittsburgh needs to keep winning to stay ahead of the surging Ravens, making tight games like this one must-wins. Chicago has been the beneficiary of some fortunate bounces to win tight games against a weak schedule. The Bears have beaten the Saints, Raiders, Bengals, Vikings and Giants by an average margin of 2.6 points per game. The Bears’ defense is poor, ranking 25th in the league in success rate. The Steelers should do what the Steelers do best in this game: create havoc and force mistakes out of Caleb Williams. Against a poor Chicago defense, the Steelers should score enough to, at the very least, make this a one-score game.
