Of the top six teams in the Eastern Conference standings after the season’s first month, four were part of the field last season and another was so injured that it never conceivably had a chance. The real shocker is the Toronto Raptors, who have climbed to 10-5, three games behind the Detroit Pistons.
They will most likely make it 11-5 tonight when they host the pitiful Washington Wizards, who sit at the rear of the conference at 1-13, tonight. The game will begin at 7:30 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena near the shores of Lake Ontario. It’ll be Toronto’s third game of Emirates NBA Cup action, and it’ll have the opportunity to clinch Group A with a win and an Indiana Pacers defeat against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Raptors are 14.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-950 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 240.5. The Wizards are +625 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s potential clincher and offer my prediction.
Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors preview, prediction
To be fair, Toronto hasn’t had any truly exceptional wins in its 9-1 run, as the Cavaliers were resting their starters on Halloween, but you can only beat the teams in front of you, and the Raptors have done a good job doing just that. New acquisition Brandon Ingram has been solid, averaging 20.9 points per game and shooting a career-high 56.8% from two-point range, Scottie Barnes has been a two-way wrecking ball and has seemingly rediscovered his three-point jumper, and the young, scrappy bench unit has been among the best in basketball. Toronto is still ironing out the kinks of having Ingram and Barnes on the court together, but all in all, vibes are good in the North.
The positive energy emanating from Canada couldn’t come in starker contrast to the pall that hangs over the American capital. Washington has unequivocally been the worst team in basketball and has somehow been even more abysmal than it was last season, when it went on a 16-game losing streak early in the season and then another 16-game skid less than a month later. That’s not to say that all is hopeless — Alex Sarr has emerged as arguably the best player in the 2024 draft class, averaging 18.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks per game with efficiency increases across the board, and Kyshawn George has been extremely efficient on medium volume — but Wizards fans shouldn’t expect good basketball any time soon.
Wizards at Raptors pick, best bet
Over the last 10 games, the Raptors have had the seventh-best offense and third-best defense in basketball, and they’ve done it despite shooting a below-average percentage from beyond the arc, grabbing a below-average number of rebounds, and drawing fouls at a below-average rate. Toronto’s hot streak can be tied to elite ball movement (the third-best assist-to-turnover ratio) and top-10 marks in the paint on both sides of the ball. The Raptors have also scored the most fast break points and allowed the third-fewest. It’s a bad recipe for Washington, which has scored the 11th-fewest points in the paint and allowed the fourth-most, though at least the Wizards have scored the 10th-most points on the fast break. They’ve also turned the ball over the fourth-most times.
The hosts’ key to victory will be rim dominance; in the last 10 games, Toronto has gotten into the restricted-area at the 10th-highest rate and Washington the 10th-lowest, and both were among the 13 most accurate, but in the non-restricted paint, the Raptors have been the most precise team and the Wizards have been the least precise. Defensively, both teams have allowed lots of shots at the rim, and Toronto has been the eighth-best rim protecting team while Washington ranks 14th. The Wizards have forced more non-restricted paint tries, but they’ve been less effective than the Raptors at defending the ones they do allow.
Toronto has also had a healthier shot diet outside the paint, attempting the ninth-most wide-open threes while Washington has tried the ninth-fewest, but Raptors have been far less accurate on such shots than the Wizards have. If they shoot well today, that could be a problem for Washington, which has allowed the sixth-most wide-open three-point attempts. Toronto has contested threes at about a league-average rate but has allowed the fifth-lowest percentage. Those factors of shooting luck — the fact that the Raptors have been inaccurate on uncontested triples but also allowed benefited from poor opponent shooting — should roughly cancel each other out. Thus, it comes down to fundamental game plan and execution, and Toronto has been better in both aspects.
I just don’t think the Raptors have been 15 points better, despite that each team’s recent net rating would suggest that they’re closer to 30 points apart. Taking Washington against the spread feels wrong after it lost by 33 to Cleveland, which Toronto has already beaten twice, and it even lost by 23 to the Brooklyn Nets, who have the league’s fifth-worst net rating. Still, the Wizards’ strong rim protection numbers and solid shooting suggest that they’re fundamentally closer to a run-of-the-mill bad team than a historically impotent one, and the Raptors’ conceding as many shots at the rim as Washington isn’t indicative of a true championship contender.
