NBA Cup play continues on Friday as the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls square off in the Eastern Conference’s Group C. These teams are both 1-1 in the opening round and have the benefit of star talent returning to the lineup as both Bam Adebayo and Coby White made it back into the floor over the last few days. With these sides nearing full strength, the action only gets better when this contest tips off at 8 p.m. EST tonight.
Here’s a Heat vs. Bulls prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s matchup.
Heat vs. Bulls prediction, preview
Miami Heat
The injury report remains somewhat extensive with Andrew Wiggins (hip) and Nikola Jovic (hip) both out alongside Tyler Herro (ankle), who’s still yet to make his season debut. However, the Heat did recently return Bam Adebayo following a brief absence and he returned to the tune of a cool 20 points with seven boards and a pair of blocks. The big man sits second on the team with 19.9 PPG behind only Norman Powell, who’s still on a hot streak with 25.4 PPG on nearly a 50/40/90 shooting split. Jaime Jaquez Jr. will see a larger role with the injuries and already contributes across the board with 16.8 PPG along with a handful of rebounds and assists. There’s some solid role player depth behind them, so once healthy, this team may prove quite good. While Miami lacks great raw numbers defensively at 21st in opponent scoring, the team is actually sixth in DEFRTG. Plus, Adebayo’s return boosts that side of the ball. As for offense, the Heat score the third-most PPG. They fall 12th in NETRTG overall at +3.6.
Chicago Bulls
Despite what many people expected, the Bulls are playing quality hoops with an 8-6 record thus far. With the fourth-most PPG and 13th-ranked OFFRTG, this attack is humming as things stand and will only improve with Coby White (calf) back in the lineup. The guard averaged 20.4 PPG last season and looks fully healthy after dropping 30 and 27 points in his first two games back — though he’s questionable to play tonight due to injury management. Elsewhere on the injury report, Tre Jones (ankle) is questionable while Jalen Smith (pec) is probable. Through the first month of the season, Josh Giddey paces Chicago with 20.8 PPG and 9.7 assists, and his 9.8 rebounds are just shy of the team lead as well. Nikola Vucevic holds that honor with 9.9 boards per game along with 16.6 PPG. Ayo Dosunmu, Matas Buzelis, Kevin Huerter and the aforementioned Jones all average between 13 and 16 PPG as well, so there are contributions all around. The Bulls’ defense is less impressive at 24th in opponent scoring, and they fall 18th with a NETRTG of -0.1.
Heat vs. Bulls pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Bulls are slight favorites at -2.5 with -142 odds to win outright on the Moneyline. The Heat are listed at +120 to win with a game total of 249.5 points, quite the high line.
Looking toward the splits, Miami is just 2-5 when playing on the road this season compared to a 5-1 home record for Chicago. That’s something to keep an eye on, though both sides do enter with a bit of growing momentum with each coming off back-to-back wins.
What we see here is a clash between two pretty similar teams. While the roster construction isn’t quite the same, the Heat are first in pace while the Bulls are third. Both teams push the tempo, pass the ball plenty (both top-seven in AST%), and shoot pretty efficiently as well (both top-12 in TS%). The high total makes a lot of sense with that context, especially with the sides scoring the third and fourth-most points of any team at 123.6 (MIA) and 121.7 (CHI). The Bulls are a little better on the boards, but Adebayo’s return does mitigate that a little bit with another strong interior presence — plus his ability in the paint does provide a defensive anchor for Miami that Chicago lacks.
White didn’t play night two of a recent back-to-back but probably has a better chance of suiting up tonight, while the Heat will certainly miss Wiggins’ 16.7 PPG as a steady option in the starting lineup. This may be close, and while I want to take something related to the game total, it’s tough to make a call there. Instead, I’m banking on the Bulls to keep their new winning streak alive and continue this run of excellent play against a Heat squad that struggles on the road.
Top pick: CHI Bulls -2.5 (-105)
