The No. 17 Texas Longhorns host the Arkansas Razorbacks for a Week 13 matchup on Saturday afternoon. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET in Austin, Texas.
The Longhorns are listed as 8.5-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 58.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction, and best bet for this matchup between these two SEC opponents.
Arkansas vs. Texas prediction, preview
Arkansas Preview
It has been the same story for Arkansas all season. The Razorbacks have one of the best offenses in the conference, ranking third in the SEC in yards per game. However, they have one of the worst defenses in college football, ranking dead last in the SEC in total defense by a significant margin. Arkansas has found ways to lose close games all season. In eight losses this season, five of them have come by three points or fewer, six have been one by possession and seven have been by single digits. Notre Dame is the only team that has blown out Arkansas all season. Every SEC game for the Razorbacks has been a single-digit loss. Taylen Green has been one of the best quarterbacks in the nation all season, and he would love to officially stick a fork in Texas this week.
Texas Preview
This is a tough spot for Texas. The Longhorns lost to Georgia last week, likely ending their season. They are out of the SEC Championship Game race and are likely out of the College Football Playoff as well. A win against Arkansas, followed by a huge win over undefeated Texas A&M next week, could get Texas back into the CFP picture, however. After a huge loss to Georgia and with a massive rivalry game against a top-ranked team next week, this could be a flat spot for Texas. However, if the Longhorns stay focused, it’s also a chance for them to get right before that huge game against the Aggies. If Texas dominates Arkansas and then pulls off that big upset, it could get back into CFP contention. Arch Manning has a chance to have one of his best games of the season against this bad Arkansas defense if he comes prepared.
Arkansas vs. Texas pick, best bet
My best bet for this game is for Texas to cover the first-half spread of 5.5 points. Texas has been good on opening drives this season, scoring on its first drive in three straight games. Steve Sarkisian always comes up with one or two good scripted drives to start the game. Arch Manning is at his best when he can use his legs as a weapon and get the ball in space to his weapons, like Ryan Wingo. Arkansas ranks 115th in defensive EPA/rush and 123rd in defensive EPA/dropback, so Manning should be able to do both. Texas should be able to jump on Arkansas quickly and take out some of its anger from last week’s loss. There is a chance Texas takes its foot off the gas late in the game as it looks towards next week’s big game. That could give Taylen Green a chance to get his team in the backdoor to cover the full-game spread. That is why I’m backing Texas to score in bunches early and lead by at least a touchdown at halftime.
