After taking a bad loss to the Dolphins in Week 10, the Bills’ offense seemed to get back on track at home in Week 11, posting 44 points as they beat the Bucs. They’ll face a tough test on a short week this Thursday, though, as they head to Houston to take on the Texans. Part of their Week 11 success was due to a shake-up at wide receiver, but in the re-made receiver room is Gabe Davis or Tyrell Shavers a better fantasy football value going forward?
Let’s dive into the changes, some of the injuries that will continue to impact the team this week, and what to expect from Davis and Shavers going forward.
Shaking Things Up
The Bills shifted multiple things last week at receiver, making Keon Coleman a healthy inactive due to a missed team meeting, getting Joshua Palmer back from injury, elevating Gabe Davis from the practice squad, and signing Mecole Hardman Jr. as a free agent.
In the middle of all that, top receiver Khalil Shakir missed a couple of practices this week due to the birth of his child, but will be able to suit up on Thursday after not appearing on the team’s final injury report.
There were pass-catchers on the report, though, as both Hardman and Curtis Samuel were ruled out, along with starting tight end Dalton Kincaid.
For Week 12, it is still unclear if Coleman will return or not. When asked about it, coach Sean McDermott said, “We’ll see. We addressed the situation and now we’re moving forward… If he grows from this, we can move forward. If he doesn’t it’s hard to.” Coleman ranks second on the team, behind only Shakir, in targets and catches. He has multiple catches in every game he has played while averaging 36.7 yards. If he is a healthy inactive again, there would obviously be more work available for both Davis and Shavers.
Gabe Davis Fantasy Outlook
Davis was signed to the Bills practice squad in September after a disappointing season last year with the Jaguars was cut short by a meniscus injury. He had three catches on four targets for 40 yards in his first game of the season while playing 41% of snaps.
He did convert two key third downs and his one missed target was in the end zone. While he still doesn’t seem ready for a full workload, he looked like someone who can contribute to the team, and he seems to have a strong rapport with QB Josh Allen from their previous work together in Buffalo.
Davis hasn’t shown the ability to be the big-play threat he was earlier in his career, but he is still an interesting option as a trusted veteran contributor. He is not currently on the active roster, but the Bills could again promote him from the practice squad to let him play this week. Keep an eye out for that news before kickoff on Thursday.
Tyrell Shavers Fantasy Outlook
Josh Allen had a huge game against the Bucs, running for three touchdowns and passing for three more scores. One of those touchdown tosses went to Shavers, who led the team in receiving yards (90) with four catches on his five targets and this touchdown:
He played 54% of the snaps for the Bills, tying with Shakir for the team lead. Shavers also led all wide receivers in the entire NFL in Week 11 in separation rate according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Shavers breakout game was impressive and legitimate, but it remains to be seen how Coleman’s potential return threatens his long-term upside.
Shavers made the most of his opportunities, but with Palmer and Shakir healthy and without injury designations, he could be forced into a very small role if Coleman is active, as well.
The Bottom Line
The Bills are in a very tough wide receiver matchup this week against the Texans, who allow the third-fewest fantasy points to the position. Elite cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. leads a very good secondary, although he’ll likely be focused on taking Shakir out of the game plan. If Shakir is shut down, Shavers and the rest of the receiver room could step up. Shavers is a good deep-league add at this point, and he can be a long shot FLEX play if Coleman is a healthy inactive again. In deep season-long leagues, he makes sense to pick up in case he permanently moves past Coleman on the depth chart.
For Thursday Night Football showdown contests on DraftKings, like the NFL Showdown $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (BUF @ HOU), Shavers is an incredible value play at only $2,400 in a FLEX spot. If Coleman is inactive, Shavers would become almost a must-play and would even have solid consideration as a bargain Captain’s Pick that would allow you to stack your FLEX spots with star options. Davis is a little more expensive at $3,800, but if Coleman is given his normal spot back, he could end up playing slightly more than Shavers if he’s promoted again from the practice squad.
Both Shavers and Davis have value potential, but the unknown Coleman situation makes both of them higher risk. Of the two, Shavers has a higher ceiling and more potential this week and going forward.
