Old-school Pac-12 rivals are set to clash this weekend, with a College Football Playoff spot hanging in the balance. #15 USC has been on a roll recently, winning four of their last five games. That hot streak will be put to the test with a trip to #7 Oregon on Saturday. Can the Trojans earn an upset, or will the Ducks cement their status as a championship contender?
Oregon enters this contest as 9.5-point favorites (-112) over USC, with the over/under set at 59.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
USC vs. Oregon prediction, preview
As evidenced by the point total, oddsmakers are expecting a shootout. It’s easy to see why, as both sides wield elite quarterbacks. For the visitors, it’ll be Jayden Maiava under center. Through ten games, the junior has thrown for a Big Ten-leading 2,868 yards while accounting for 18 touchdowns and six interceptions. The gunslinger has been a big play machine, also pacing the conference with 9.5 yards per attempt. Superstar wideout Makai Lemon has already notched 1,090 receiving yards.
That’s not to say this offense is all about dominating through the air. On the ground, USC has churned out 1,908 rushing yards, fourth-most in the Big Ten. Leading the way in that category is running back King Miller. Over ten games, he’s tallied 719 rushing yards and five touchdowns. However, six different Trojans have produced multiple TDs with their legs. In comparison, Oregon’s defense has surrendered just nine touchdowns this season.
Saturday’s matchup is a true battle of strength on strength. Oregon is allowing just 127.3 passing yards per game, the best mark in the conference. In addition, the defense has snagged nine interceptions. Safety Dillon Thieneman has enjoyed a terrific season, highlighted by a game-winning pick vs. Penn State. Up front, linebackers Teitum Tuioti and Matayo Uiagalelei have combined for 17.0 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks.
Unlike the Ducks, Southern California isn’t the most intimidating defense. The school has given up 344.1 yards per game to opponents, seventh-worst in the Big Ten. USC’s biggest area of weakness is on the ground, where several opponents have exploited their mediocre defensive front. Look no further than October 18th vs. Notre Dame, in which the Irish churned out 306 rushing yards. Four different Oregon running backs have gained 400+ rushing yards. That well-balanced attack should be put to full use this weekend.
With that being said, this offense goes as far as Dante Moore takes it. The young QB has been a revelation, notching 2,190 yards, 21 touchdowns and just five interceptions. In six of his ten outings, the sophomore has thrown for multiple TDs. That includes road battles against Rutgers and Penn State. Five different Oregon pass catchers have garnered 250+ receiving yards. That level of depth is difficult for most opponents, let alone an already spotty defense.
USC vs. Oregon pick, best bet
A quick look at Oregon’s schedule shows that they are relatively untested. Their only game against a ranked opponent, #2 Indiana, ended in a ten-point loss. A road win against Penn State, impressive at the time, hasn’t aged very well. That’s not to say the Ducks are overrated; with one loss, a #7 ranking feels apt. Still, Saturday’s game will be the program’s biggest test in over a month. USC, if nothing else, has the offensive firepower to keep pace with its opponents. An improving Trojans squad can stay within striking distance this weekend.
