These are my picks to win every Week 12 NFL game straight-up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier.
You can bet on any of these games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 12 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Ravens over Jets
The Ravens have been on fire over the past few weeks. They have won four straight games, largely due to the return of Lamar Jackson. The offense is looking like one of the league’s best once again. Also, since their bye week, the Ravens’ defense ranks third in the NFL in defensive EPA/play. They have corrected things on both sides of the ball and look like serious contenders. Against the Jets at home, it should be all Baltimore in this spot.
Seahawks over Titans
The Seahawks are coming off a tough divisional loss to the Rams, but this is the ideal bounce-back spot against the Titans. The Seahawks’ defense is the real deal. Despite Sam Darnold having his worst game as a Seahawk, throwing four interceptions, the Seattle defense held up and held the Rams to just 21 points. Against this poor Tennessee defense, Darnold and the Seattle passing attack should get back on track. Along with their elite defense, this should be an easy win.
Lions over Giants
The Lions are another team in need of a win. They have lost two of their past three games and need a win to stay in contention for the NFC North. Jaxson Dart could be making his return to the field for the Giants this week. However, the Lions’ offense should still have too much firepower. The Lions are averaging an incredible 33.5 points per game in Detroit this season. The Giants rank 31st in defensive EPA/play, and the Lions should carve them up. Even if Dart sparks the offense, it’s hard to see that group keeping up with Detroit’s potent offense.
Patriots over Bengals
The Patriots just keep winning and continue to face easy competition this week in Cincinnati. Not only do the Bengals have the worst defense in the NFL, but their offense will be without Ja’Marr Chase as he serves a suspension. So, that allows Christian Gonzalez to focus on Tee Higgins while the Patriots’ elite run defense shuts down Chase Brown. The absence of Chase makes the defense’s job much easier, and the offense should tear apart the awful Bengals secondary.
49ers over Panthers
The 49ers are in a good spot at home on Monday night. Bryce Young has never won a primetime game in his career and has major struggles on the road. Flying across the country to face the 49ers is a tough task for Young. The 49ers’ offense will likely get theirs, as they looked sharp last week against the Cardinals. If Bryce Young needs to play catch-up against the 49ers, he will likely make mistakes and allow the 49ers to cruise.
Medium Confidence
Packers over Vikings
The Packers are going to need to keep winning if they want to win the very competitive NFC North. Despite having a solid roster, the Vikings are the weak link of the division. So, when getting the worst team in the division at home, you need to get a win. J.J. McCarthy has struggled all season, and on the road against Micah Parsons and the Packers is not the time to be figuring things out. The Packers should force mistakes out of McCarthy and Jordan Love should capitalize on those mistakes on the other end.
Bills over Texans
The Bills have a tough task heading to face the NFL’s best defense on a short week. However, Josh Allen should ultimately find a way to win the game. Davis Mills struggled last week against the Titans and now faces a Buffalo defense that ranks sixth in defensive dropback success rate. This should be a low-scoring slugfest between two strong defenses. However, Allen is much more likely to make the winning plays than Davis Mills.
Rams over Buccaneers
The Rams are arguably the best team in football at the moment. They have won five straight games heading into this one. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have lost three of their past four games. Tampa Bay could be getting healthier on offense this week, but it will still have a tough task against the Rams, who rank second in the league in defensive EPA/play. The Buccaneers have an elite run defense, but it’s the pass that is so scary when facing the Rams. This should be a hard-fought game, but the Rams keep finding ways to win and should do so again this week.
Jaguars over Cardinals
The Jaguars are back in contention for the AFC South and have a chance to get within a game of the Colts this week. The Cardinals’ defense is crumbling, having given up over 40 points each of the past two weeks. Jacksonville should be able to score in this game, especially with its elite run game that ranks third in the NFL in EPA/rush. Meanwhile, Marvin Harrison Jr. is set to miss another week. The Cardinals’ offense should struggle against Jacksonville, and the Jaguars will escape Arizona with a win.
Chiefs over Colts
The Chiefs and Colts face off in a battle of teams that need a win. The aforementioned Jaguars are chasing down the Colts, so they need to keep their lead. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are just 5-5 and need to get a win to get back over .500 and stay in the playoff race. It should be a tough game between two good offenses. However, in a must-win spot at Arrowhead, it’s hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes. He should make the necessary plays to make this a winning effort for Kansas City.
Coin-Flip Games
Steelers over Bears
The Bears have been scraping by in close games this season against poor competition. Last week, it took a last-second field goal set up by a big kick return to beat the Vikings. The week prior, it took two touchdowns in the final five minutes to beat the Giants. They also have wins by five points or fewer against the Raiders, Commanders and Bengals this season. The Steelers got back on track with a nice win over the Bengals last week and should present a real test for the Bears. Aaron Rodgers has haunted this team for over a decade and should have a great chance to pull off the upset this week.
Raiders over Browns
These are two of the worst teams in the NFL this season. It’s hard to trust either team, but in a coin-flip game, I’ll back the Raiders. Shedeur Sanders will be making his first career start, and he struggled in relief of Dillon Gabriel last week. A couple of rookie mistakes from Sanders could be the difference in this game. The Browns’ defense has also not been the same unit on the road as it has been at home this season. If the Raiders are ever going to win another game this season, this is the spot.
Eagles over Cowboys
The Eagles are in a tough spot heading to Dallas. The Cowboys’ offense proved last week that it is still one of the most dangerous in the NFL. If this game turns into a shootout, it certainly favors the Cowboys. However, this game is also a great chance for the Eagles to get their passing game going against a bad Cowboys secondary. The Eagles are the better team, so I’ll back them to win, but it’s toward the bottom of my confidence rankings.
Saints over Falcons
This is an ugly matchup between the Kirk Cousins-led Falcons and the Tyler Shough-led Saints. Kirk Cousins will be starting the rest of the season, but he has not looked good in relief of Michael Penix Jr. this season. The entire Falcons offense has seemed broken over the past few weeks, with major questions surrounding OC Zac Robinson and head coach Raheem Morris. This is a true coin-flip game, but at least the Saints have a young quarterback and head coach looking to build something, while the Falcons have a coach who could be on the way out and a veteran backup quarterback playing the rest of the season. From an effort and focus perspective, the Saints are the right choice in a coin-flip game.
