Week 12 of the NFL season has already arrived and will kick off with a Thursday Night matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans. Neither of these teams sit in their desired standings from a postseason perspective, but their playoff hopes are alive and well.
The Buffalo Bills hold a 7-3 record, but suffered a surprising loss to the Dolphins in Week 10 and trailed in the fourth quarter against the Buccaneers last week. They trail the 9-2 Patriots in the AFC East, but have a firm hold on a Wild Card slot for the time being.
Houston holds a 5-5 record and would be the first team out of the playoffs if the season ended today. C.J. Stroud will miss his third straight week with a concussion, but the Texans are coming off back-to-back wins without him. They have found an identity with their strong defense, and Davis Mills has done a respectable job filling in at quarterback.
Looking at the odds for this Week 12 Thursday Night Football matchup, the Bills enter as six-point favorites and hold -290 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Texans hold +235 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 43.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action outside of backing a side or total. This article will look at my top three favorite player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 12 Thursday Night Football matchup.
Bills vs. Texans Best Prop Bets
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-120)
While James Cook is no slouch, Josh Allen is the Bills’ best goal line back with a team-high 10 rushing touchdowns on the season. He has been one of the bigger touchdown threats since he came into the league, with 37 rushing scores over the last three seasons alone. Allen is a threat in Buffalo’s version of the “Tush Push” and is capable of taking off any time the team is in the red zone. The star quarterback is coming off three rushing scores just last week and has seven over his past four games.
The Texans have a stingy defense that currently is allowing the fewest points in football. Points will be difficult to come by across the board, especially given the underwhelming performance from the Bills’ wide receivers this year. Buffalo leaned on Allen at an increased rate to close last season, with him recording nine rushing scores between Week 10 and Week 16.
This strategy has carried into this year, and I struggle to see other reliable ways the Bills will put points on the board. Whether by necessity or design, count on Allen taking off for the end zone with his legs at a frequent rate. Houston has allowed just eight rushing touchdowns all year and has yet to allow one to an opposing quarterback. But the Texans have not faced a true dual-threat QB this season. Their matchup with the Ravens came with Cooper Rush under center, meaning Baker Mayfield has been the closest thing they’ve seen to the real deal. Expect Allen to provide some unique challenges and for the Bills to call on him at a high rate. Look for the reigning MVP to find pay dirt once again and add to his impressive total on the year.
Josh Allen Under 19.5 Completions (-123)
Part of the driving force of the belief in Allen’s legs is the struggles I foresee through the air. Looking at the Texans’ defense, they are giving up the fewest points and total yards in the league. They also rank third in passing yards allowed, fifth in passing touchdowns conceded, and second in net yards per passing play, despite facing the 15th-most attempts. Houston has a front seven that excels at creating pressure and will force Allen to make quick decisions.
Looking at Allen’s production this year, there has been a high level of variance. He is posting a 69.4% completion percentage with 18 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. The three-time Pro Bowler is averaging 20.4 completions per game, but has tallied as many as 33 and as few as 12. In total, he has been held to under 19.5 completions in five games this season.
None of the pass catchers have stepped up at the desired rate, complete with Keon Coleman being a healthy scratch last week. Expect each to struggle to create separation against an elite Texans’ secondary. It is also worth noting that Allen ranks third in the NFL in turnover-worthy play percentage. This will be a further concern with him expected to be rushed on plenty of his passing plays, and Buffalo has not had a clear counter for this all year. Allen’s completion percentage under pressure is below the NFL average, although he has the most scramble yards under pressure.
The Bills may be forced to win ugly if they are to get their desired result, and this does not have the makings of a strong passing performance by Allen. Expect him to be held to under 19.5 completions for the sixth time this season against the toughest individual defense the Bills’ star has faced.
Woody Marks Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
On the other side of this matchup, Woody Marks has done a nice job growing his role as the season has progressed. The fourth-round pick saw his level of opportunity expand following the preseason injury to Joe Mixon, and has increasingly pushed Nick Chubb to the side for a larger role in the offense. Through the opening 10 games, Marks has carried the ball 99 times for 348 yards and two touchdowns.
While this is the exact same number of carries as Chubb on the season, Marks is coming off back-to-back weeks with 65.7% and 80.0% of the offensive snaps logged, respectively. He has received 10+ carries in each of the past five games and is coming off a season-high 18 rush attempts last week. Marks has tallied over 62.5 rushing yards in two games and should only see his level of opportunity expand. There is a quick-twitch ability he possesses that pops in the offense, and Houston has wisely leaned into this.
This prop is especially appealing with Marks going against a Bills defense that has struggled to stop the run. Buffalo ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed, 31st in net yards per rush attempt, and dead-last in rushing touchdowns conceded. They also rank in the bottom three in PFF’s run defense grade. With Marks’ level of opportunity expanding, and a friendly matchup, this has the makings of a career-best day. He has not quite broken free yet, with his longest carry being 23 yards on the year. But he has been close on several occasions and will have success against a Bills defense that has been vulnerable all year. Tampa Bay gashed them for 202 rushing yards, and De’Von Achane individually tallied 174 rushing yards in the last two weeks alone. Count on Marks having success and recording over 62.5 rushing yards for the third time this year.
