The Grizzlies are hosting the Kings on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Memphis is favored by 2.5 points and this game carries a total of 235.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Grizzlies vs. Kings preview, prediction
The Grizzlies and Kings clash Thursday in a matchup of two of the worst teams in the NBA this season. Memphis is 4-11 and Sacramento is 3-12. In terms of net rating, the Grizzlies are 26th at -8.0, while the Kings are 27th, but at a notably worse -10.7.
Memphis will be without both Ja Morant (out, calf) and Jaren Jackson Jr. (doubtful, ankle) tonight. While these two are the team’s most talented players, Morant and Jackson Jr. have both struggled this season and these high usage players missing may be the shake up this Memphis squad needs right now.
With Morant and Jackson Jr. out, the Grizzlies will be led by Zach Edey, Santi Aldama, Vince Williams and Cedric Coward. Edey just made his season debut two games ago and while a limited sample, Memphis owns a rock solid 4.6 net rating with the center on the floor. Edey has nearly double-doubled in both of these games and the Grizzlies should feed the big man tonight vs. this Kings’ defense that is giving up the third-most points in the paint this season (55.3). With both Morant and Jackson Jr. off the floor the last two seasons, Edey’s usage rises 3.9 percentage points to 20.6% and he is averaging 17 points per 36 minutes.
Aldama and Coward are also decent scorers, and while this group of secondary Grizzlies’ players is underwhelming on paper, this team should have no issues scoring the ball vs. the Kings, who rank 27th in defensive rating and are playing their second game in two nights, whereas Memphis hasn’t played since Wednesday. Despite Morant and Jackson Jr. being sidelined, the Grizzlies carry a 116.5-point implied team total on DraftKings Sportsbook, which is notably the highest of the eight NBA teams in action Thursday.
While Sacramento has yet to release their injury report, Domantas Sabonis (knee) should remain sidelined and with him inactive, the Kings are 1-3 this season. DeMar DeRozan, Russell Westbrook and Zach LaVine are the team’s main players right now, and while Sacramento can get solid stat lines from these players here and there, these older veterans have mostly been shells of themselves this season. LaVine has been especially bad as of late, scoring single-digits in back-to-back games. There really isn’t anything good to say about the Kings right now and them being road underdogs to the skeleton staff Grizzlies is warranted.
Grizzlies vs. Kings pick, best bet
While we have yet to see the Grizzlies play without both Morant and Jackson Jr. this season, Memphis is at home and it is the more rested team, which is enough for me to back the Grizzlies over the lowly Kings. This season, Sacramento is 0-2 on the second leg of back-to-back sets with a league-worst 18.5-point margin of defeat.
It’s hard to have any faith in the Kings right now and Memphis -2.5 is the right choice for this matchup.
