Arkansas State is hosting Louisiana on Thursday night of Week 13. The game will take place at 7:30 p.m. ET in Jonesboro, Arkansas.
The Red Wolves are three-point home favorites in this game on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 53.5 points. This is a preview, prediction and pick for this Sun Belt conference matchup.
Louisiana at Arkansas State prediction, preview
Arkansas State Preview
Arkansas State still has an outside shot at making the Sun Belt title game. The Sun Belt is the final conference in college football to still use divisions, and the Red Wolves are in the weaker West Division. Southern Miss currently sits atop that division, but it is not by any means a dominant team. Arkansas State is just one game behind Southern Miss, along with Troy. Troy and Southern Miss play each other in the final week of the season, so one of those two teams will take at least one more loss. Arkansas State would need some help, but if it wins out, it has a chance to get to that title game. That would be a major victory for coach Butch Jones. Jones has built this program back up and finished second in the Sun Belt West each of the past two seasons. This would be the next step forward, with a chance to take down JMU in the Sun Belt Championship Game.
Louisiana Preview
Louisiana has had a down season after making the Sun Belt Championship Game last season. However, the offense has found a rhythm over its last two games. In wins over Texas State and South Alabama, the Ragin’ Cajuns scored a total of 73 points. After taking over as the starting quarterback midway through the season, Lunch Winfield is developing as a solid dual-threat signal-caller. He had eight total touchdowns across those two wins and brought some positive momentum into the bye week.
Louisiana at Arkansas State pick, best bet
My best bet for this game is for Louisiana to cover as three-point underdogs. The betting market will occasionally factor into the line when a team has “something to play for.” In these final weeks of the season, the betting odds and public betting percentages will reflect a bias toward teams that are still in contention for something. However, Michael Desormeaux is a great coach and will keep his team motivated to keep playing hard. Louisiana has put together back-to-back great offensive performances and Lunch Winfield wants to take this momentum to next season, where he hopes to return as the starter for the Ragin’ Cajuns.
The biggest edge in this game for Louisiana is its ability to turn good drives into points. Arkansas State is one of the worst teams in the country in the red zone, on both sides of the ball. The Red Wolves rank 114th in offensive points per quality drive and 119th in defensive points per quality drive. They struggle to stop teams in the red zone and to convert their own drives into touchdowns. That should be the difference to allow Louisiana to pull off the upset.
