As the Pittsburgh Steelers have somehow stumbled their way to another winning season, one man has been more responsible than any other, and it’s not Aaron Rodgers, though he’s been pretty solid for a man who will turn 42 in 12 days. Running back Jaylen Warren, who was the backup to Najee Harris last season, has proven capable of handling a leading role, contributing 536 yards on the ground and 219 through the air. But he didn’t practice on Wednesday in advance of Pittsburgh’s Week 12 game against the Chicago Bears on Sunday after leaving the Week 11 game with an ankle injury early in the third quarter.
Though the team is reportedly optimistic about his status for the game, it’ll also be in fine position if he’s not able to go. Kenneth Gainwell was Saquon Barkley’s backup with the Philadelphia Eagles last season and has extensive experience across his five seasons, and this season, he’s turned his 61 carries into 244 yards in three touchdowns while adding 36 catches for another 204 yards and two scores, which isn’t all that far off on a per-touch basis from Warren. He was the team’s leading receiver in the Steelers’ Week 11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals, turning his eight targets into seven catches, 81 yards, and two touchdowns.
There’s not all that much that has separated the two backs this season. Gainwell has actually garnered a higher running grade at Pro Football Focus, earning a 74.2 to Warren’s 74.0, and while Warren grades out much more highly as a receiver, games like Week 11 demonstrate that when trusted with opportunities, Gainwell can succeed, too. Warren has mainly separated himself by being one of the league’s best pass-blocking running backs, which is important given that Rodgers has lost mobility and will be playing through a broken left wrist if he suits up at all, but isn’t relevant for fantasy. Pittsburgh operates a very egalitarian system: eight different players have recorded at least 160 receiving yards, and Rodgers targets running backs at the third-highest rate.
If Warren can’t play, Gainwell would be a worthy start against a Bears defense that has given up the eighth-most rushing yards per game and the fourth-most yards per attempt. Chicago has also been worth the 13th-fewest expected points added via its front seven. To be fair, the Bears have allowed the ninth-fewest rushing touchdowns to running backs, but they’ve allowed three more through the air, more than all but three other teams. Especially with Rodgers potentially hampered by the wrist injury, the Steelers might want to call short passes intended to get Gainwell the ball in open space.
